Special Features

Tropical Storm Melissa is centered near 16. 2N 75. 4W at 24/0600 UTC or 130 nm SE of Kingston Jamaica, moving N at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring near Melissa from 12N to 18N between 69W and 76W, with scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection noted across much of the central Caribbean from 14N north and northeastward across eastern Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Peak seas are around 19 ft northeast of the center. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, followed by rapid intensification this weekend. Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday and a major hurricane by the end of the weekend. A slow northward or north- northeastward motion is forecast during the next day or so, followed by a sharp turn westward over the weekend. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to move closer to Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti during the next couple of days. Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several days. Melissa is expected to bring 8 to 14 inches of rain to the southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica through Sunday, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond Sunday; however, uncertainty in Melissa's track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact totals. Significant, life- threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are expected in the southern Dominican Republic and eastern Jamaica, with catastrophic flash flooding and landslides anticipated in southern Haiti. Across the northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected through Sunday. Flash and urban flooding will be possible through Sunday. Flooding impacts may increase across western Jamaica next week.

Please consult products from your local weather office. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes. gov/graphics_at3. shtml? rainqpf

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/marine/offshores. php for more details

For the latest Melissa NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www. hurricanes. gov for more details.

Tropical Waves

A pair of tropical waves in the central Atlantic has merged. The wave axis is along 37W, and extends southward from 18N. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 04N to 19N between 29W and 41W.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16W and extends southward to 07N25W. The ITCZ continues from 07N25W to 08N33W, and resumes from 09N41W to 11N57W. Away from convection associated with the tropical wave in the central Atlantic, isolated moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 14W and 27W. Scattered moderate convection is also present from 05N to 11. 5N between 41W and 46. 5W.

Gulf Of America

A weak cold front extends westward from Marco Island, Florida to 26N89W, then turns northwestward as a stationary front to beyond eastern Texas. A 1021 mb high pressure is building over the southeastern United States, resulting in an increasing pressure gradient north of the front. Recent scatterometer satellite data show moderate NE to E winds occurring north of the front over the northeastern Gulf, where seas are 3 to 4 ft, while mainly moderate E winds occurring in the northwestern basin. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong NE winds are noted through the Florida Straits as Tropical Storm Melissa spins in the Caribbean. Gentle to moderate E to NE winds are noted elsewhere in the Gulf. Seas of 2 to 3 ft prevail over most of the western basin, with 4 to 5 ft seas noted through the Florida Straits and in the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, the aforementioned frontal boundary will stall later tonight and then dissipate on Fri. Gentle to moderate NE winds at the eastern Gulf will become fresh to strong by early Fri afternoon, and SE winds at the northwestern and north-central Gulf will follow the same trend by Fri night in response to a strong high pressure passing north of the Gulf. Rough seas are also expected across the southeastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits by Fri evening. As the high slided eastward into the Atlantic early next week, these winds and seas should subside.

Caribbean Sea

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for specific information on Tropical Storm Melissa.

Away from Tropical Storm Melissa, moderate to fresh NE winds are noted via satellite scatterometer data in the northwestern Caribbean, in the lee of Cuba, as an increasing pressure gradient develops between Melissa and a frontal boundary in the eastern Gulf of America. Seas in this area are 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh E to SE winds, with locally strong winds, and 4 to 7 ft seas are noted over the eastern basin.

For the forecast, Melissa will move to 16. 4N 75. 3W Fri morning, 16. 8N 75. 2W Fri evening, and 17. 2N 75. 5W Sat morning. Melissa will strengthen to a hurricane near 17. 3N 76. 0W Sat evening, then move to 17. 4N 76. 5W Sun morning, and 17. 5N 77. 2W Sun evening. Melissa will change little in intensity as it lingers near Jamaica late Mon.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from 31N72W southwestward to Delray Beach, Florida, then continues through south Florida into the Gulf. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed moderate to locally fresh NE winds occurring in the wake of the front offshore of Florida. Scattered moderate convection is found 85 nm south of the front and north of 27N. A mid-level trough is supporting scattered moderate convection north of Hispaniola between 62W and 70W. An increasing pressure gradient between the front in the western Atlantic through the Gulf and Tropical Storm Melissa in the Caribbean is leading to fresh NE to E winds and 4 to 5 ft seas in the Florida Straits. Fresh to strong E winds, with localized near- gale force winds, and 5 to 7 ft seas are occurring south of 23N offshore of Cuba and Hispaniola as Melissa churns to the south. A 1026 mb high pressure centered near 35N55W is supporting moderate to fresh winds and 5 to 8 ft seas N of 25N and between 47W and 64W. Farther east, a cold front spans from 31N30W to 25N47W, with a pre- frontal trough extending from 30N29W to 21N44W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring along the surface trough. Gentle to moderate winds are occurring near these features. Moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are noted over the rest of the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 55W, a tight pressure gradient between the central Atlantic high pressure and Tropical Storm Melissa in the central Caribbean has resulted in fresh to strong with locally near-gale force E to SE winds from the northern coast of Hispaniola northward to the southeast Bahamas. These winds will continue until Fri morning before decreasing to mostly fresh. However, they will become fresh to strong again and also spread northward to the northeast Bahamas by Fri night as another high pressure moves off the Georgia/South Carolina coast. These winds and seas will decrease on Mon as the high weakens and moves farther eastward into Atlantic. Meanwhile, a cold front curving southwestward from northwest of Bermuda across 31N72W to southern Florida will gradually push eastward across the western Atlantic, and stall from near Bermuda to southeastern Florida by Fri night. Winds and seas in the Great Bahama Bank and near the Bahamas will once again increase as Melissa, possible a major hurricane by then approaches eastern Cuba.

Posted 9 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster KRV