Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and extends to near 04N20W. The ITCZ extends from 04N20W to 02N30W to the coast of Brazil near the Equator along 47W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 04N and between 12W and 48W.

Gulf Of America

The pressure gradient between a 1019 mb high pressure system centered southeast of Bermuda and lower pressures across eastern Mexico support moderate to fresh S to SE winds and slight to moderate seas across the basin. The southerly wind flow in the western Gulf waters is lifting smoke northward from agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico, producing hazy skies west of 92W.

For the forecast, the surface ridge extending westward from a 1019 mb high pressure southeast of Bermuda will maintain moderate basin to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate seas at the central and western Gulf through Sat night. Locally strong E to SE winds will pulse north of the Yucatan Peninsula, each afternoon and night as a trough develops daily over the region. A strong cold front will move into the northern Gulf Sat night and shift across the basin through early Mon, bringing fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas. Gale-force winds and very rough seas are probable offshore of Tampico and Veracruz Sat night through Sun night. Both winds and seas should gradually subside early next week in the wake of the front.

Caribbean Sea

An expansive subtropical ridge located north of the basin is supporting strong to near gale-force easterly winds and rough seas in the south-central Caribbean. Fresh to strong E to SE winds and moderate seas to 8 ft are found in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring in the north-central and eastern Caribbean and much of the NW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are basin evident in the lee of Cuba and between Cuba and Jamaica.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a 1019 mb Atlantic high near 27N56W and the Colombian low, will support fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf of Honduras through Sat night, and south-central Caribbean through this weekend. Winds may reach near-gale force each night offshore of northern Colombia, with rough seas expected within and to the west of these winds. Moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds are expected over the rest of the Caribbean basin through Sun night. Rough seas will linger east of the Lesser Antilles through Sat night as N swell progresses through the central tropical Atlantic. In the long term, a strong cold front will move through the Gulf of America this weekend and move into the northwestern Caribbean early Mon, reaching from western Haiti to near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border Tue morning.

Atlantic Ocean

The SW North Atlantic, west of 50W, is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge, centered on 1019 mb high pressure near 27N56W. This pattern is maintaining moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas across the region. A trough is analyzed from 31N39W to 26N54W. Moderate to fresh SW winds and rough seas are found ahead of the trough to 35W and north of 28N. Decaying NW swell is also producing rough seas in the central Atlantic between 25W and 50W and north of 20N. South of 20N, moderate to fresh trades prevail, with rough seas present west of 43W and moderate seas east of 43W. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas are occurring east of 25N and north of 22N.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas north of 29N and east of 65W in N swell will subside from west to east through Sat. Elsewhere, 1019 mb high pressure located south of Bermuda will shift slowly eastward through the weekend, producing moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds offshore of northern Florida through Sat evening. Moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere through Sat. A strong cold front will push offshore of the southeastern U. S. on Sun, with strong NW winds and rapidly building seas behind the front through early next week. The front is expected to reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba Mon morning, and from 31N60W to northwest Haiti Tue morning.

Posted about 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Nepaul