Overall, the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season has been active with 16 tropical storms. Today, Philippe became the fifth hurricane of the year. Three of those hurricanes were major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).

It is tempting for Floridians to let their guard down now that we are in October. But the graphic above shows the formation points of 286 tropical storms during the month of October from the National Hurricane Center's historical data set extending from 1851 to 2010. Several of these storms have affected Florida. In fact, Florida has had more major hurricanes in October (10) than in August (six).

Special Section: Hurricane 2011

Some of the computer models are currently showing a low pressure system developing on the trailing end of the frontal cloud band that has been lingering around for the past few days to the southeast of Florida. The models differ on where this low develops with the U.S. Global Forecast System currently showing the formation near the southeast Florida coast and the European model showing formation over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. We will be watching for this possible development over the Columbus Day weekend.

During the satellite era starting in 1966, the Atlantic has averaged 1.8 tropical storms, of which 1.0 became a hurricane during this month. Last year, we saw five tropical storms form during the month of October (see graphic). And all five of them became hurricanes.

We need to remember the saying "October -- Not Over."