MIAMI – College football has officially arrived. With a handful of Football Championship Subdivision games already in the books, we now get ready for the first week of major college football.
The Miami Hurricanes are one of the bigger mysteries in college football this season: A team that once again boasts plenty of talent but also hasn't been able to translate that talent into on-field success in recent years.
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With that, here's a look at Miami's schedule, not by date, but by difficulty. I'm breaking it into three tiers:
1) Should win (better than 75 percent chance)
2) Could win (about 50/50 give or take)
3) Don't get your hopes up (less than 25 percent)
Tier 1: Should win
1) vs. Bethune-Cookman, Sept. 5: Great tune-up for the young 'Canes. Get the starters some work, get them out of the game and get the backups ready to play in case of injury.
2) at FAU, Sept. 11: I like this game. Friday night brings a little different atmosphere. The 'Canes should win, and I like that the competition ramps up a week before Nebraska.
3) vs. Virginia, Nov. 7: I know the 'Canes lost this one last year. It won't happen again. UVA lost quite a bit from last year's defense, and the Cavaliers have major concerns all over the field. The 'Canes will roll at home.
Tier 2. Could win
1) at Cincinnati, Oct. 1: This game is sneaky. Right after Nebraska, right before FSU, on a Thursday night in a hostile atmosphere and against perhaps the second-best quarterback the 'Canes will face all year in Gunner Kiel. But, the schedule does Cincinnati no favors here. The Bearcats face a tough Memphis team the week before on just four days rest while the 'Canes get a bye week to prepare. This won't be easy, but I expect the 'Canes to take it.
2) vs. Nebraska, Sept. 19: Surprised to see this game so high? Don't be. This one sets up well for the 'Canes: Big game at home, revenge factor from last year and Ameer Abdullah is now playing for the Detroit Lions instead of running all over everyone in college. The Cornhuskers will also be learning the ropes under a new head coach in Mike Riley.
3) at North Carolina, Nov. 14: Now things get tough. Yes, the 'Canes pounded UNC last season at Sun Life Stadium. However, the Tar Heels return an experienced QB in Marquise Williams and could give the 'Canes fits at home (remember how tight the 2013 game was). It's also the week before the Georgia Tech game, so Al Golden will be tasked with keeping the young 'Canes focused.
4) at Duke, Oct. 31: This one was close into the second half last year at Sun Life Stadium, although it always felt like the 'Canes had control of everything except the weather. The Blue Devils are replacing quite a bit, including starting QB Anthony Boone, but David Cutcliffe has emerged as one of the top coaches in college football and he will have them ready.
5) vs. Virginia Tech, Oct. 17: These games are always fun. The 'Canes throttled Virginia Tech last year in Blacksburg in the middle of a tailspin for the Hokies. This is expected to be the best Virginia Tech team since 2010 and will be an extremely tough "sandwich" game in between the 'Canes two toughest showdowns of the year (more on that in a moment).
6) vs. Georgia Tech, Nov. 21: Surprised to see this game here? Despite all the pictures and videos of last year's game that made Miami fans' blood boil, Miami has actually owned this matchup since Paul Johnson took over at Georgia Tech. The 'Canes had won five straight before last year's loss. I would actually have this game even higher on the list, but I want to see how the defensive line and linebackers play early before making that call.
7) at Pittsburgh, Nov 27: 'Canes fans remember all too well how the Panthers ran all over them at Sun Life Stadium last year. Guess what? James Conner is back. So is Tyler Boyd. Head coach Paul Chryst has moved on to Wisconsin, but Pat Narduzzi will undoubtedly keep the same physical style of football in place. Plus, the 'Canes will have to play this one on short rest. "Tough" doesn't do this one justice.
Tier 3: Don't get your hopes up
1) vs. Clemson, Oct. 24: The Tigers will be the second-most talented team on Miami's schedule and will feature the best QB they'll see in Deshaun Watson. The Tigers lost two first-round draft picks on defense, but Brent Venables is one of the best defensive coordinators in the country and will have them ready. This also comes after back-to-back showdowns with FSU and Virginia Tech.
2) at FSU, Oct. 10: No surprise here. FSU is stacked once again. Sure, Jameis Winston is gone, but Jimbo Fisher made sure the transition would be much easier when he landed transfer QB Everett Golson from Notre Dame. Golson's had issues with turnovers in the past, but I expect Fisher to help him clean that up in his QB-friendly offense. What's more is the 'Noles should be well-rested after a week off and an Oct. 3 matchup with Wake Forest.
Are these absolutes? Of course not. But for a team in transition, this schedule doesn't give the 'Canes many breaks after week two. Unless this team improves in a number of areas, it's hard to envision the 'Canes going better than 8-4, with 7-5 or worse being a realistic possibility.
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