MIAMI – We are just hours away from the big day Heat fans have been waiting for: Free Agent Friday. A number of star players can start negotiating deals at the stroke of midnight, and Heat President Pat Riley has set his sights on this day for a long time.
But will July 1 and the days that follow be a windfall or a whimper for Miami? Some thoughts as we count down to midnight:
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1. Dwyane Wade is almost certainly staying put
This summer feels much different than a year ago in which some hurt feelings had to be repaired over the first few days of the free agency period. Reports are circulating what Wade's reps have reached out to other teams to gauge interest but consider that "due diligence." We'd be shocked if Wade went elsewhere.
2. Hassan Whiteside is a different story
Mavericks owner Mark Cuban has set his sights on the big man, and Cuban can be very influential. He will get the first crack at Whiteside shortly after midnight and will almost certainly sell him on being the centerpiece of the team and building a championship contender around him.
It seems as if Riley will get at least one more meeting with Whiteside, with a number of reports indicating the Heat will join the Mavericks and Blazers as the three teams Whiteside sits down with shortly after free agency tips off.
Keep in mind; this may be the only chance Whiteside will ever have to strike a big deal. He came to the Heat from the developmental league after multiple stints overseas. That's why he is set to become a free agent after playing with the Heat for such a short time. It's also why it's hard to fault him for taking the biggest deal available.
Cuban will likely offer Whiteside the maximum contract allowed. Will the Heat? The answer to that will also likely tell us whether Whiteside will stay in Miami or go west.
3. How realistic are the Heat's chances with Kevin Durant?
This summer, not very.
According to the league's collective bargaining agreement, Durant has two choices: Sign a long-term deal this off-season for big money or sign a long term deal next off-season for much bigger money. All signs point to Durant signing a one-year deal with Oklahoma City now, then cashing in on a much bigger deal next off-season.
What does this mean for the Heat? As of now, Pat Riley will reportedly get the last swing at Durant on Sunday in the Hamptons (after the Thunder, Spurs, Celtics, Clippers and Warriors). Expect Riley to use his time to build a relationship with Durant that he can revisit in 2017 when the former MVP likely makes a decision on his long-term home.
4. Dropoff after Durant
Speaking of 2017, keep this in mind: After Durant (and LeBron James, who isn't going anywhere), there's a significant dropoff to the next tier of free agents this offseason. Guys like Whiteside are very valuable, but Durant and LeBron are superstars who can take a team to another level.
As it stands now, there will be far more superstar-level players available in 2017: Durant, again (perhaps), Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook, Blake Griffin and Chris Paul. The salary cap will also jump significantly which will give Riley much more to work with.
Expect the Heat president to take a big swing at Durant and also make a strong offer to Whiteside. But Riley doesn't just want to field a "good" team. He wants to field a championship team. If he doesn't feel he can do that with the players available this off-season, it wouldn't surprise us one bit to see Riley start building relationships that could set the stage for a big splash in 2017.
5. Horford a Heat target?
Dan Le Batard reported that the Heat's "back-up plan" is 4-time all-star center Al Horford. As of now, the Heat haven't reportedly scheduled a meeting with Horford, but that would be quite a "backup plan." Horford's father, Tito, played college basketball at Miami, and Le Batard has said he thinks Horford would sign with the Heat for a discount.
6. Bargain hunting
If all else fails, a number of potential "bargain" free agents could be available for the Heat to consider. Jason Lieser, of the Palm Beach Post, did a good job of breaking that all down here.
Final thoughts
The free agent market is exploding like never before. A drastically escalating salary cap is leading to reports of mid-tier free agents garnering massive deals (for example, Heat backup combo guard Tyler Johnson could get more than $10 million a season, per Yahoo's Adrian Wojnarowski on AM 790.). Riley doesn't seem too keen on overpaying for role players, and any potential "bargains" this off-season may not be viewed as such by the Heat front office.
Riley has made it clear how much he values the flexibility to attract "whales." And, with so many "whales" set to hit the market in 2017, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Riley "punt" this off-season if he sees better opportunity next year.
The only thing we know for sure it is will be a free agent frenzy come midnight.