Hurricane

Melissa strikes eastern Cuba as a major hurricane after ravaging western Jamaica

Melissa strikes eastern Cuba as a major hurricane after ravaging western Jamaica

Hurricane Melissa, which devastated western Jamaica as one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded, briefly restrengthened between Jamaica and Cuba late Tuesday before making a second landfall shortly after 3 a.m. ET Wednesday as a Category 3 hurricane about 40 miles west of Santiago de Cuba – the country’s second most populous city – in eastern Cuba.

What to know about Hurricane Melissa

What to know about Hurricane Melissa

Hurricane Melissa was making its way across Cuba on Wednesday as a Category 3 storm, a day after making landfall in Jamaica as one of the region’s strongest storms on record.

Looking ahead to next week in the Caribbean

Looking ahead to next week in the Caribbean

A strong late-season tropical wave now moving through the central Atlantic could develop once it enters the Caribbean as upper-level winds turn increasingly conducive next week.

Atlantic ends the week on a quiet note

Atlantic ends the week on a quiet note

Since the basin reopened for business about a month ago following a bizarre 20-day drought with no active tropical systems through the traditional peak of the hurricane season, it’s managed to notch 6 of its 12 named storms and a full 60% of the season’s overall tropical activity as measured by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy or ACE.

Lorenzo limps along as the Atlantic takes a breath

Lorenzo limps along as the Atlantic takes a breath

Despite earlier forecasts showing Tropical Storm Lorenzo hanging around into the weekend, the unfriendly central Atlantic of mid October has done a number on it, and it’s no longer expected to survive the work week.

Disheveled Jerry to pass near the northern Leeward Islands today

Disheveled Jerry to pass near the northern Leeward Islands today

Despite a lopsided and disheveled appearance, Tropical Storm Jerry’s winds have gradually ticked up and it’s expected to be just shy of hurricane strength as its center curves north of the northern Leeward Islands along the northeastern edge of the Caribbean later today.

Imelda inbound for Bermuda

Imelda inbound for Bermuda

Hurricane Imelda is accelerating away from the U.S. but strengthening on a beeline to Bermuda for later today, where it’s forecast to bring strong winds to 100-plus mph, flooding rains, and powerful and destructive waves.

Imelda strengthens over the Bahamas as US threat lessens

Imelda strengthens over the Bahamas as US threat lessens

Tropical Storm Imelda formed Sunday afternoon just east of the southern tip of Andros Island in the northwestern Bahamas and continues to strengthen near Great Abaco Island in the northern Bahamas – about 200 miles east of southeast Florida – on Monday.

Imelda could form by this weekend and threaten the southeast US early next week

Imelda could form by this weekend and threaten the southeast US early next week

Humberto rapidly strengthened to a hurricane early Friday and is forecast to ramp up into a formidable major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane this weekend, but it’s the disturbance to Humberto’s west that’s expected to develop and threaten the southeast U.S. – likely as Imelda – by late weekend and early next week.

Double Trouble: Dueling disturbances head west for the weekend

Double Trouble: Dueling disturbances head west for the weekend

Two vigorous tropical disturbances – designated Invest 93L (easternmost disturbance) and Invest 94L (westernmost disturbance) – are likely to develop in the coming days and could bring impacts to land, with the westernmost system tracking through the Bahamas and near Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas for early next week.

Gabrielle clinging to life but forecast to recover this weekend

Gabrielle clinging to life but forecast to recover this weekend

Gabrielle, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, formed late Wednesday morning, the first named storm in the Atlantic since August 28th, breaking a remarkable 20-day stormless Atlantic streak and making it the latest first-forming September storm in over 30 years.

Depression forms, forecast to become Gabrielle later today

Depression forms, forecast to become Gabrielle later today

Invest 92L, the disturbance we’ve been following since early last week, was upgraded to the 7th tropical depression of the Atlantic hurricane season early Wednesday, breaking an unprecedented 20-day dry spell through what’s traditionally the busiest part of the season.

Tracking Invest 91L toward the eastern Caribbean islands for next week

Tracking Invest 91L toward the eastern Caribbean islands for next week

The tropical wave we’ve been following since last Thursday in this newsletter – designated Invest 91L by the National Hurricane Center early Thursday – is expected to become a tropical depression or named storm this weekend and could affect the easternmost islands of the Caribbean by the middle to latter part of next week.

Forecast models undecided on fate of Atlantic disturbance

Forecast models undecided on fate of Atlantic disturbance

The tropical wave that rolled off Africa Sunday – a system we’ve been following since last Thursday and discussed in detail in yesterday’s newsletter – continues to move harmlessly through the deep tropical Atlantic with only scattered, disorganized storminess.

New AI forecast model shines during Hurricane Erin

New AI forecast model shines during Hurricane Erin

Google DeepMind, a London-based AI research lab, has been in the business of machine learning-based weather forecasting for several years, but back in June announced a new experimental AI model specific to tropical storms and hurricanes that would be evaluated in real-time this season by forecasters at the National Hurricane Center.

Large Erin pulling away from the US but coastal issues linger

Large Erin pulling away from the US but coastal issues linger

Hurricane Erin passed to within about 250 miles of North Carolina’s Outer Banks Thursday morning at it closest point of approach to the U.S., with its extraordinarily large wind field bringing wind gusts as high as 49 mph to the coast and widespread areas of moderate to even major coastal flooding.

Models fall into line on Erin’s future

Models fall into line on Erin’s future

After waffling over Erin’s future path in recent days, forecast models seem to have settled on a course that will take the center of the future hurricane just north of the Leeward Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend

Erin set to strengthen as forecast trends shift

Erin set to strengthen as forecast trends shift

Erin, the fifth named storm of the hurricane season, formed on Monday over the eastern Atlantic and is poised to strengthen into the first hurricane of the season by Thursday as it tracks westward.