Dr. Klotzbach and Dr. Gray out of Colorado State University issued their April outlook for the upcoming 2012 Hurricane Season. Here is what they had to say:
"We anticipate that the 2012 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have reduced activity compared with the 1981-2010 climatology. The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are relatively high. We anticipate a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. However, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted."
SPECIAL SECTION: 2012 Hurricane Headquarters
I can't stress the last point enough. Remember in 1992 when Andrew struck south Florida that we only had 6 named storms, well below the average of 11.
They also list the probabilities for at least one major hurricane landfall on the entire U.S. coastline at 42% (average for last century is 52%), the U.S. east coast including Florida at 24% (average for last century is 31%) and the gulf coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville at 24% (average for last century is 30%)
Dr. Klotzbach and Dr. Gray will issue another seasonal update on the 2012 Atlantic basin hurricane forecasts on Friday June 1st and again on Friday August 3rd before we reach the peak of the season.