NOAA updates seasonal hurricane forecast

Should we pay attention to NOAA seasonal hurricane forecast?

Author: Max Mayfield, Hurricane Specialist, mmayfield@Local10.com
Published On: Aug 10 2012 06:32:51 PM EDT   Updated On: Aug 10 2012 06:42:00 PM EDT
MIAMI -

On Thursday, NOAA updated its seasonal hurricane forecast calling for 12 to 17 named storms, five to eight hurricanes, and two to three major hurricanes.  These numbers include the six named storms that have already occurred over the Atlantic Basin. 

The numbers are also consistent with the updated forecast released last week by respected seasonal forecasters Klotzbach and Gray from Colorado State University.

The most frequently asked question that I get is “What kind of a hurricane season are we going to have?” 

While there is some skill in forecasting the number of storms on a seasonal  basis for the entire Atlantic Basin, these numbers alone don’t say anything about where or when or even if the tropical cyclones will hit land.  What most people really want to know is if there will be a hurricane over their community, and no one can tell you that with any certainty.

Hurricane Andrew in 1992 taught South Florida that it is not all about the numbers.  It just takes that one hurricane over our community to make for a bad year. 

These seasonal outlooks should have absolutely nothing to do with our preparedness plans.  If we live in South Florida, we should be prepared no matter what the numbers are in the seasonal forecast.

Local 10’s Hurricane Survival Guide provides excellent preparedness tips as we head into what is historically the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.