Seasonal hurricane forecast updated
Max Mayfield's Hurricane Blog
Colorado State University researchers Drs. Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray updated their seasonal hurricane forecast on Friday, and are calling for slightly below-average activity for the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season.
Their forecast calls for 13 named storms, which include five hurricanes and two major hurricanes. It should be noted that their forecast of 13 named storms includes Tropical Storms Alberto and Beryl which formed in May. Therefore, their prediction for the remainder of the season is for 11 additional named storms.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) scientists released their forecast last month and are calling for near-normal activity.
Based on National Hurricane Center records for the period 1981-2010, an average hurricane season produces 12 named storms with six hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
These long-range forecasts are interesting but they don’t say anything about where or when or even if the tropical cyclones will hit land. These numbers are for the entire Atlantic Basin that includes the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.
Hopefully, we have learned that it is not all about the numbers. It just takes that one hurricane over our community to make for a bad year.
The important thing is that these seasonal outlooks should have absolutely nothing to do with our preparedness plans. If we live in South Florida, we should be prepared no matter what numbers are in the seasonal forecast.
Local 10’s Hurricane Survival Guide provides excellent preparedness tips in getting ready for this year’s hurricane season.
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