The Atlantic Basin has been uncharacteristically void of significant tropical cyclone activity during August.
Tropical Storm Erin formed and dissipated above the eastern Atlantic while being designated as a tropical storm for only a couple of days. Tropical Storm Fernand formed above the southwest Gulf of Mexico and lasted less than a day before moving into Mexico. Erin and Fernand were both weak tropical storms, although Fernand brought very heavy rains to portions of Mexico.
The above graphic shows tropical storm formations by month based on historical data from the National Hurricane Center. Note that September is historically the most active month. It would not be wise to forecast the remainder of the season to be as uneventful as the first half of the season. That would be like predicting the final score of a baseball game in the middle of the fifth inning.
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Most seasonal forecasters are still calling for above normal activity. In fact, the last NOAA seasonal update stated, “Our confidence for an above-normal season is still high…”
I’m not letting my guard down until the season is officially over.