Mostly calm in the tropics as Gulf disturbance not expected to organize


The upper winds over the Gulf of Mexico are generally hostile to tropical development, so the tropical disturbance to the southwest of Florida is unlikely to have an opportunity to organize.  

A big cluster of thunderstorms in the Caribbean looks suspicious, but it’s mostly related to an upper-level disturbance and is not of concern.

A strong high-pressure system is controlling the weather all across the south, including in Florida. That will continue be the case through the weekend. Strong highs keep tropical systems away.

Mid to late next week, the computer forecast models indicate that a front will stall over or near South Florida, which would mean more clouds and rain. The front will extend from the Gulf into the Atlantic offshore of Florida. We’ll watch to see if a disturbance might eventually pin up along that front.  

The odds of an organized tropical disturbance coming off of Africa and moving across the Atlantic is rapidly diminishing now that we are into October.