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How accurate is Punxsutawney Phil on Groundhog Day?

Believe it or not, there are historical stats that judge his accuracy

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The coronavirus pandemic will turn yet another annual tradition into a virtual event on Tuesday -- this time the annual Groundhog Day celebration in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania.

Instead of gearing up for the arrival of thousands of tourists from around the country to see whether Punxsutawney Phil will see his shadow, those interested in the groundhog’s forecast will have to watch virtually at 6:30 a.m. on the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club’s website.

If the groundhog sees its shadow, it means six weeks of winter. If it doesn’t, it means we’ll have an early spring.

The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club actually has historical data on ceremonies that have taken place since 1887, on its website.

Last year, Punxsutawney Phil saw its shadow, although for many states in the Midwest, it didn’t seem to feel like spring for many days in March, April and early May.

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The key data on how often the groundhog has seen its shadow and how accurate its forecasts turn out to be are shown in the graphic below.


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