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The disturbance in the Gulf is getting more organized while large Larry heads north

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The Tropical Disturbance we’ve been tracking in the Gulf is getting a little better organized. The upper-level winds are slightly more supportive of an organized circulation forming before the system reaches the Florida Panhandle or the northern Florida peninsula. But it’s running out of time.

A dip in the jet stream is digging into the South, which is picking up the disturbance and pulling it toward the Panhandle. The National Hurricane Center is giving the disturbance a decent chance of becoming just organized enough to meet the criteria of a tropical depression today or tomorrow.

Whether it does or not, the main impact from the system is expected to be the rain. A large slug of tropical moisture is being pulled north with the disturbance. Pockets of heavy rain are already over the Florida Panhandle and will spread across North Florida and south Georgia through Thursday. Several inches of rain is forecast and flash flooding is a threat today and tomorrow in the path of the moisture.

A bit of the moisture might drag across South Florida, but the real impact of the system will be farther north in the state.

Once the system gets into the Atlantic Thursday night or Friday, it again has a slight chance to turn into a depression before getting absorbed into a cold front that’s following close behind it.

In the Atlantic, monstrous Hurricane Larry is approaching the waters east of Bermuda. It will make its closest approach to the island tomorrow. The odds are high that the worst of the weather will stay well offshore, but due to the size and reach of the hurricane, some tropical storm conditions are expected on the island.

At the end of the week, Larry might have a more direct impact on eastern Newfoundland.

Other that those effects in Bermuda and Atlantic Canada, the biggest impact Larry will have on land will be the powerful swells radiating across the Atlantic powered by the wide expanse of Larry’s winds. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely in Florida and up the East Coast of the U.S., especially from Palm Beach County north. The Bahamas tends to shield Broward and Miami-Dade counties from most of the energy spreading across the ocean.

Check the lifeguard’s flags if you head to the beach over the next several days.

Otherwise, a pronounced disturbance over Africa will move into the eastern Atlantic in the next few days. The computer forecast models show it developing fairly quickly into an organized system. But they also show it turning north. We’ll watch to be sure.

Otherwise, long-range computer forecast models don’t show anything significant developing through the weekend at least.


About the Author:

Bryan Norcross is currently a hurricane specialist at Local 10 News, the station where he began his stretch on television in Miami in 1983.