A broad area of low-pressure taking shape in the eastern Caribbean – designated Invest 95L by the National Hurricane Center – could organize into a tropical depression over the coming days as it heads toward Central America.
For now, 95L, located just east of the ABC islands north of Venezuela, is battling moderate wind shear out of the southwest. Exactly where the circulation becomes established will dictate how much of an impediment the shear is to future growth, but intensity guidance suggests it should at least inhibit significant organization next week.
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Nevertheless, gradual development is expected in the next day or two as 95L tracks westward in the direction of Central America.
Blocking high pressure anchored firmly over the Gulf of Mexico isn’t going to let the system anywhere close to Florida or the mainland U.S. so this won’t be a concern for us stateside.
Regardless of development, the biggest threat with 95L will be locally heavy rainfall across the Caribbean, from the easternmost islands to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands to Jamaica and parts of Central America by middle to later next week.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, the low-pressure area near Bermuda is getting tangled up in a nearby front and will be absorbed by the front in the days ahead.