PITTSBURGH (AP) — Just the thought of it makes Pat Narduzzi cringe.
There the Pitt football coach is, standing in front of his players after a largely successful season, explaining to the Panthers why they aren't going to the Atlantic Coast Conference championship game. It might not have anything to do with what they did or didn't do on the field, but because of a spreadsheet that explains the league's byzantine tiebreaker policy says.
“I think there's nothing worse than walking in a team room saying, ‘Sorry guys, we’re not going because we didn't play that team or they didn't play that team,'” Narduzzi said. “But it's not my job, it's what (the ACC) did.”
The recent expansion to super-sized versions of the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC — all of which have at least 16 teams, all of which have done away with the idea of separate divisions — means the days of “everybody pretty much playing everybody” and having it largely sorted out between the lines are long gone in the chase to reach the College Football Playoff.
Welcome to the superconference era of, as Duke coach Manny Diaz put it, “unintended consequences.” And it's especially messy in the ACC.
There’s a real chance that at least one of the two spots in the ACC championship will be determined by criteria other than head-to-head. The list of tiebreakers that follows includes record against common opponents and the combined winning percentage of conference opponents.
That one is particularly problematic for Narduzzi, whose 23rd-ranked Panthers (7-2, 5-1) are among five one-loss teams while No. 16 Miami and No. 19 Louisville lurk close behind in the league race. Conference schedules are set years in advance. The second-winningest coach in Pitt history wonders why a team should be penalized for having a lackluster schedule during a given year, when that schedule is out of his hands.
Asked if it’s fair for teams to be at the mercy of the schedule makers, he shook his head.
“Not fair at all,” he said.
Simply divided
Narduzzi preferred the old ACC model featuring two divisions. Teams played each of their division peers, with a limited number of games against the other division.
Pitt won its only ACC championship in 2021 by winning the Coastal Division, then topping Wake Forest in the title game. The Panthers went 7-1 to finish a game clear of the Coastal field, beating all but Miami that season. It all kind of made sense.
Now?
“It will make you dizzy,” he said. “I don't even look at the standings. I don't care.”
Pitt closes with a trip to No. 14 Georgia Tech and a home finale against Miami, while Diaz and Duke (5-4, 4-1) will try to make things even murkier on Saturday when the Blue Devils face No. 20 Virginia (8-2, 5-1).
It makes Diaz long for a simpler time. During his high school career at Miami Country Day, there was once a five-team tie for a playoff spot. So all five teams met at the same stadium and played a series of Kansas tiebreakers (meaning possession starts at the opponent's 10-yard line) until a winner emerged.
“I'm all for it if five teams want to show up in Charlotte or whatever, just put the ball down at the 10 and figure out the ACC championship,” he said with a laugh.
But Diaz isn't sure Narduzzi's preference toward divisional play makes much sense either, considering the size of the Power Four leagues.
“Why have (16-18) team conferences only to cut them in half and never play the other side?” he said. “That's called two conferences. ... And that's what's so silly about this whole thing. Like we just, as I was saying, the unintended consequences are remarkable."
As for Virginia, the surprising Cavaliers have had their own quirky slate.
The team picked to finish 14th in the ACC in the preseason lost only once in the first two months. That came at N.C. State in a nonconference matchup between longtime league members, which didn't count in the league race because it came outside the league's scheduling model. That game wouldn't factor into any league tiebrakers, though the Cavaliers' wiggle room vanished in last weekend's home upset loss to Wake Forest that included quarterback Chandler Morris being knocked from the game.
Still, coach Tony Elliott — who happens to have a degree in industrial engineering and is a self-proclaimed “math guy” — knows there's at least one simple route.
“I think if you win all your ACC games, you know you have an opportunity to be in Charlotte,” he said. “Plus, that stuff is too complicated. Even though I’m a math guy. It hurts my brain. So I've got to focus on getting the team ready to play, not what the tiebreaker scenarios are.”
Beyond the ACC
The tiebreakers could have a major say in the other power conferences, too.
The Big 12 has six teams with no more than two league losses, and the only remaining head-to-head matchup between those teams is No. 12 BYU (8-1, 5-1) at No. 22 Cincinnati (7-2, 5-1) on Nov. 22. The only teams with total control of their destiny to get to the Big 12 title game in Arlington, Texas, are No. 8 Texas Tech (9-1, 6-1) and the winner of that BYU-Cincinnati game.
In the Southeastern Conference, No. 3 Texas A&M and No. 4 Alabama are undefeated in league play. The Crimson Tide can secure a spot in the Atlanta title game by beating No. 11 Oklahoma in Tuscaloosa on Saturday and by winning the Iron Bowl at Auburn two weeks later. The Aggies can punch their ticket by topping South Carolina in College Station this weekend and then winning at No. 10 Texas two weeks later.
If either stumbles, league tiebreakers would come into play and open the door for one-loss teams like No. 5 Georgia, No. 6 Mississippi and No. 10 Texas.
And in the Big Ten, No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Indiana are the only unbeaten teams. They don't play each other in the regular season and are on a collision course to meet in Indianapolis for the league title. No. 18 Michigan — which hosts the Buckeyes on Nov. 29 in Ann Arbor — No. 7 Oregon and No. 17 Southern California still have paths if the Buckeyes or Hoosiers slip up.
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AP College Sports Writers Aaron Beard in Raleigh, North Carolina, and Eric Olson in Lincoln, Nebraska, AP Sports Writer Stephen Hawkins in Dallas and Mark Long in Gainesville, Florida and AP freelance writer Mike Barber in Charlottesville, Virginia, contributed to this report.
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