Disorganized in the Gulf, but still watching disturbance near Texas


The tropical disturbance in the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico has still not organized, and it’s almost out of room before it runs into land. Still, heavy rain and thunderstorms are rotating around the broad circulation. The main threat continues to be the potential for flooding rain along the coast from Mexico through Texas, and into the south-central U.S. where flooding has already reached record levels.

If the circulation should sufficiently organized, the National Hurricane Center will designate it a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm Barry, depending on the strength of the top winds in the system. It does not appear that the system will become very strong in any case, but coastal residents in Texas and Louisiana should stay informed.

The outer bands of rain will reach the Texas coast later today, and spread north through the rest of the week into the south-central states. Some of the moisture will be deflected east around the high-pressure area that has been sitting over the eastern Gulf and the Florida peninsula. This should bring some rain to Georgia and the coastal Carolinas which have been abnormally dry.

The blocking high pressure system that has kept Florida sunny, hot, and generally dry will slide to the east by the weekend. The atmosphere will moisten and more typical June weather is expected with daily rain from then into next week.

Otherwise, the tropics are quiet.