Tropical disturbance drifting towards South Florida

The tropical disturbance over the Bahamas is disorganized, but has a lot of moisture wrapped around it. The forecast brings the disturbance toward South Florida, with the heaviest rain staying over the Bahamas. Though the increasing moisture will elevate the chance of heavy rain over the peninsula starting tomorrow.  

Forecasts for disorganized systems are always less precise than those for well-developed storms, so there is significant uncertainty in the track of the moisture. And how much of it will directly affect Florida.

Over the weekend, the disturbance is forecast to slowly move north, eventually reaching North Florida and the coastal waters of Georgia and the Carolinas. By that time, there is a slight chance the system might have developed into a tropical depression or tropical storm. The general atmospheric flow should take it along or offshore of the East Coast next week.

Tropical Depression Chantal is forecast to slowly die in the North Atlantic.

The moisture surge in the Gulf, in on track to reach the northwestern Gulf coast tomorrow into the weekend. 

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Elsewhere in the tropics, nothing new is imminent, but it appears that conditions might become more favorable for tropical development next week. The computer forecast models show tropical waves progressing a bit farther across the Atlantic from Africa. We'll see.

August 22, 1992: This was the day – a Saturday in 1992 – when most people found out that a hurricane was coming toward South Florida. That morning I called the National Hurricane Center to find out what had happened overnight – there was only dial-up internet at the time. The NHC had no good news.


Andrew was now a hurricane and the track was changing. It was more likely to affect South Florida, though the official forecast was still farther north. Still, it was time to shift into full hurricane mode.

Even at 5:00 pm that Saturday afternoon, Hurricane Andrew did not look spectacularly impressive on satellite. The eye popped out, which was a sign it was getting stronger, but at 5:00 PM, it was still only a 95-mph hurricane.  

Many people recall that the Andrew was originally forecast to track "down the Dade-Broward line." But, in fact, that was never the case. At 5:00 AM that Saturday, the official forecast took it toward Central Florida. It jumped south step by forecast step. At 5:00 PM, the forecast track was toward Boca Raton. And at 11:00 PM, it was essentially perfect. Right on South Dade.

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