Tropical Storm Humberto moves toward northwest Bahamas

Tropical storm forecast to develop into hurricane

The tropical depression near northwest Bahamas has been officially declared Tropical Storm Humberto in the latest advisory.

The 11 p.m. advisory continues to place the islands hit by Hurricane Dorian in the path of the storm. All of Florida is now clear of the current forecast cone, but a tropical storm watch remains in place from Jupiter Inlet north to Volusia County.

The broad center of circulation is moving along the eastern edge of the Bahamas. The system is moving northwest at 6 miles per hour with 40 mph winds.

This is especially troubling in the northern Bahamas, where there is no good shelter, and the wind and rain on land and over the water could be dangerous until the system moves past them late in the weekend.

The tropical storm has been entangled with an upper-level low-pressure system which has not allowed it to develop. As the upper-level system moves away, the atmospheric pattern will become somewhat less hostile, and the flow will push the storm in the general direction of the Central Florida coast.  

CLICK HERE to have the Bryan Norcross Talks Tropics newsletter delivered to your inbox.

If the storm ends up tracking to the right side of the cone, along or off the Florida coast, indications are it will strengthen. The European model has insisted it will intensify significantly off the North Florida coast. If it tracks over the peninsula, it will likely be much weaker.


FOR SOUTH FLORIDA: It appears that the worst weather with the system, no matter what form it takes, will be well to the east or the north of South Florida. We'll get some fringe affects, including some tropical downpours and extra hot weather when the storm center is well to the north in a couple of days.

The future intensity and exact track of the tropical storm is very uncertain. Forecasts for disorganized systems are never as good as those for developed systems, and this is no exception. The computer forecast models are all over the place, reflecting the uncertainty. Be ready for changes in the forecast.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCES No. 2 & No. 3: The same uncertainty in the computer forecast models applies to disorganized Tropical Disturbance No. 2 on the other side of the Atlantic. It is still two or three days away from eastern Caribbean islands, and the upper-level winds are forecast to be hostile until that time.  

Early next week, we will have to watch it and Tropical Disturbance No. 3 behind it as they move into or near the eastern Caribbean Sea. There is no way to know how things are going to develop next week.  Don't get hung up on the models. They are guaranteed to change.

Behind those fledgling systems, there are more disturbances over Africa poised to cross the coast into the Atlantic, a reminder that we are still in the heart of hurricane season.

About the Authors: