The National Hurricane Center is taking note of two potential disturbances – one in the deep tropics and one off the Southeast coast. Neither is likely to be a threat.
A tropical disturbance is approaching the Caribbean islands. Technically it’s a tropical wave from Africa of the type we’ll watch closely later in the hurricane season. The disturbance will reach the islands on Wednesday, most likely as a moisture surge.
We can use the models to analyze the amount of moisture in the lower to middle part of the atmosphere. The moisture shows up in green, while areas with dry air aloft show as brown.
The disturbance is plowing ahead into a dusty atmosphere with generally unfavorable upper winds, so development is very unlikely. By the time the disturbance gets near South Florida around the weekend, the computer forecast models show it being pulled into another weather system with the excess moisture absorbed by the dry atmosphere.
The second low-pressure area of note hasn’t formed yet, but the consensus of the computer forecast models is that a non-tropical low will form off the Southeast coast tomorrow, plus or minus. As we’ve seen this year, sometimes these lows over the Gulf Stream can take on some tropical characteristics.
The odds at this point appear low, and in any case, it should head out to sea.
The fairly dense blob of Saharan Dust that was over South Florida over the weekend will be thinning out this week. The skies will continue to be somewhat hazy from a lingering dust layer, but also because the atmosphere hasn’t been stirred up by typical summertime thunderstorms. A change in the weather pattern is expected late in the week, with more storms in the forecast.
Across the tropics, no threatening systems are expected to develop this week.