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Tropical disturbance beginning to form in the western Gulf

June 12 satellite image of the tropics.
June 12 satellite image of the tropics. (CIRA/RAMMB)

The broad low-pressure system over Central America has finally nosed into the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico and some disturbed weather is taking shape there. A surge of moisture associated with another tropical disturbance that is in the Atlantic and just approaching the Caribbean islands will add energy to the mix in a few days.

Long-range computer forecast models show a tropical depression forming near the Mexican coast about midweek.

The upper-level winds are not conducive for rapid or significant development right now, and the computer forecasts don’t show that they’ll be very supportive of quick development this week, but the potential depression will have to be watched.

A strong dip in the jet stream over the eastern U.S. will try to scoop up the system and pull it north in the western Gulf. Even if the system doesn’t significantly organize, a lot of moisture is going to stream north over the Gulf coast into the southeast U.S. later in the week.

The Florida peninsula will be on the east side of all of this, and not be directly affected. High pressure over the Atlantic will keep the storm track well to the west. But the flow of tropical moisture will increase over the entire region, so increasing chances of rain are expected as this gets underway next week.

Elsewhere in the tropics, a blanket of dusty Saharan air should keep things calm for the foreseeable future.

Potential development area: June 12, 2021. (National Hurricane Center)

About the Author:

Bryan Norcross is currently a hurricane specialist at Local 10 News, the station where he began his stretch on television in Miami in 1983.