A very disorganized disturbance continues to meander off the South Carolina coast under hostile upper winds. At the same time, a cold front is pushing toward it from the west. By Sunday or Monday, the disturbance and the front should merge. The whole combination will move out to sea next week as a non-tropical weather system.
If the merger holds off just a little bit, the upper-level winds might let up just enough over the weekend that the disturbance can develop on its own and briefly become a subtropical depression or storm. Because of that possibility, the National Hurricane Center is showing a possible development area off the Carolina coast.
Except for some possible gusty squalls along the coast over the weekend, however, no significant bad weather is expected from the system.
That same front that will swallow up the disturbance will push down the state of Florida. While the northern peninsula will enjoy cooler, drier air, the front is expected to lodge itself near Lake Okeechobee over the weekend, leaving South Florida on the wet and stormy side of the system.
In addition, an upper-level disturbance will be passing over the state. The combination is forecast to cause especially heavy rain on Saturday.
By early next week, these systems weaken, so the weather should improve, but a clean fall frontal passage is not expected.
In the tropics, even the long-range computer forecast models show the quiet period continuing. Enjoy!