Wednesday didn’t bring any favors to Invest 93L – the fledgling low pressure drifting over the southwestern Caribbean.
With its center now squarely inland over Nicaragua, the Hurricane Center has lowered its short-term development odds to only 10 percent.
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As discussed in Tuesday’s newsletter, only a few storms have formed in the southwestern Caribbean over the past 70 years, and those that did typically stayed away from Florida.
The system will rotate counterclockwise – northward Thursday and Friday and then westward this weekend – taking it near or over the southern Gulf and Bay of Campeche by this weekend.
If the low pressure manages to move back over water in the Bay of Campeche, there’s a small chance it could briefly organize, but odds are increasingly unlikely, as 93L likely gets absorbed by an organizing disturbance on the Pacific side.
The extreme southern Gulf is a notorious place for storms to quickly organize and often outperform, so it’s worth keeping an eye to just in case.
Regardless, Florida and the U.S. won’t see any direct or indirect impacts thanks to a sprawling dome of high pressure centered over the U.S., and the threat remains heavy rain and potential flooding for parts of Central America and southern Mexico.
Though the expanse of Saharan dust has thinned out some since peaking last week, it remains the story elsewhere across the sleepy tropical Atlantic.
Category One Hurricane Blas in the eastern Pacific may strengthen some over the next 24 hours, but will remain safely offshore.
Meanwhile, a neighboring disturbance in the Pacific is expected to become a tropical depression by this weekend as it rides along the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala and southeastern Mexico.