The Atlantic will remain mostly quiet to round out the work week. From the Gulf of Mexico through the Caribbean Sea – the areas we typically look to in June for potential development – skies are mostly clear Thursday morning.
The only disturbance worthy of some attention in the Atlantic continues to be a vigorous tropical wave moving westward south of the Cabo Verde Islands, some 4,000 miles southeast of South Florida.
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The disturbance is beginning its journey from the west coast of Africa through the Atlantic at a low latitude.
Over the coming days, this southward placement may aid in its potential development odds down the road, as it hangs near the moisture-laden monsoon trough and intertropical convergence zone, where surface winds collide and support thunderstorm growth.
The disturbance will also ride underneath less conducive upper-level winds farther north, keeping it relatively protected from conditions typically working against tropical development in June this far east.
As mentioned in Wednesday’s newsletter, climatology is a high hurdle to clear across the eastern Atlantic tropical belt this time of year, but factors ahead could lower the bar some.
For us here in South Florida, there’s plenty of time to watch this one, as the disturbance is still five to six days away from even reaching the Caribbean.
For now, rest easy and enjoy the seasonally pleasant (and drier) weather Thursday and Friday.