While the amount of activity across the tropics Thursday is uncharacteristically busy for June, the quality of the disturbances is more typical of June, with systems struggling to overcome usual early season hurdles.
To this point, Potential Tropical Cyclone Two sailing across the southern Caribbean hasn’t lived up to its potential.
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Nighttime and early morning satellite clearly show a better-defined circulation Thursday, however, which has been the primary holdup so far in upgrading it to Tropical Storm Bonnie.
Thunderstorm activity near its center has waned for now, though as it pulls away from South America Thursday, storms should reignite as it moves deeper into the southwestern Caribbean.
The disturbance has only a narrow window to take advantage of hospitable conditions for strengthening before it moves inland across parts of northern Costa Rica and Nicaragua late Friday into Saturday.
The official forecast still anticipates a strong Tropical Storm Bonnie before reaching Central America by the weekend.
The primary threat regardless for Nicaragua and Costa Rica will be heavy rainfall and the possibility of flash flooding.
Future Bonnie may reemerge on the Pacific side and reorganize next week as it moves westward and stays south of the Mexican coast.
Another disturbance in the northwestern Gulf – Invest 95L – will be drifting inland over Texas Thursday and Friday.
Unlike the Potential Tropical Cyclone in the Caribbean, this system does have a well-defined circulation, but thunderstorms remain too disorganized to upgrade it to a tropical depression.
Given its shabby appearance on satellite Thursday morning, it’s unlikely it’ll have time to become a tropical depression before reaching land. The upshot for southeastern Texas and southwest Louisiana will be some beneficial rains in the coming days.
The other disturbance we’re tracking in the middle Atlantic is unlikely to develop as it moves toward increasingly hostile upper-level winds this weekend.
Otherwise, the tropical Atlantic looks to cool down heading into the Fourth of July holiday week, with no looming tropical threats to South Florida expected in the week ahead.