Tropical Depression Twelve forms, Caribbean disturbance moving west

Latest update on the tropics provided by Local 10 Hurricane Specialist and Storm Surge Expert Michael Lowry


Tropical Depression Twelve formed yesterday some 3,400 miles east of Miami and is expected to quickly unravel thanks to hostile upper-level winds.

Meanwhile a robust disturbance grazing the northern coast of Venezuela in the eastern Caribbean is bringing squally weather to the southernmost islands and could gradually organize by the weekend but poses no threat to the U.S.

Air Force hurricane hunters this morning are investigating the Caribbean disturbance – dubbed Invest 91L by the NHC.

Radar and satellite show disorganized thunderstorm activity and a combination of wind shear to the north and land to the south will probably limit its development potential through the workweek.

Nevertheless, it won’t take much to kick off a tropical depression and conditions appear to favor organization – perhaps quick organization – by the time it reaches the western Caribbean this weekend into early next week.

While the start of the forecast feels eerily similar to pre-Ian’s early track, the door to the Gulf is closed for business with this one due to sprawling high pressure reaching in from the Atlantic. The main concern in the short term is potential flooding from Trinidad and Tobago over to the ABC islands.

By the weekend, those with interests in Central America from Nicaragua northward to the Yucatan Peninsula of southern Mexico will need to closely monitor its progress.

Track forecast scenarios from the European modeling system. (

Otherwise, the tropical threats should stay far away from South Florida and the broader U.S. into next week. Tropical Depression Twelve in the eastern Atlantic may attempt a resurgence next week, but safely over the open waters of the middle Atlantic.

About the Author:

Michael Lowry is Local 10's Hurricane Specialist and Storm Surge Expert.