On Saturday, the National Hurricane Center added to its 7-day development outlook an area we first mentioned in this newsletter 9 days earlier and updated you on throughout last week, including last Friday as models grew gradually supportive of development over the deep tropical Atlantic for later this week.
As of Monday morning, that disturbance had a medium chance of developing into a tropical depression or named storm over the next 7 days, primarily from Wednesday through Saturday as it tracks safely over the open waters between Africa and the Caribbean. The next name on the list is Cristobal.
In general, models have trended more bullish in terms of its potential development since Friday and the easternmost Caribbean islands – from the Lesser Antilles to Puerto Rico – will want to monitor the forecast trends this week.
The scenarios that indicate development in the AI-camp of models keep the system weaker (tropical depression or tropical storm strength) but also move it farther south and graze or affect the Leeward Islands by this upcoming weekend.
For now, the top-performing Google DeepMind machine learning-based model puts development odds around 30-40% this week.
The conventional physics-based models, on the other hand, are slightly more aggressive in future development but also – perhaps due to a stronger storm – lift the system farther north into the central Atlantic this weekend and provide a safer clearance away from the islands.
It’s too soon to know which solution for the islands is most likely and interests in the islands should continue to check back this week. Though Cristobal is looking more likely than not later this week, the environment is only marginally conducive ahead, and for now our forecast models don’t indicate significant strengthening east of the islands.
Beyond the islands next week, there does appear to be enough of a break in the subtropical high pressure steering to allow the system to bend north, but we’re still more than a week out and we’ll need to see exactly how far north the disturbance – or what comes from it – tracks this week. At this stage, this isn’t anything the mainland U.S. needs to be concerned about.
Honorable mentions over the rest of the Atlantic
The NHC also added two other yellow areas to its outlook map this weekend for low development odds, but neither is of much consequence. The southernmost disturbance between Africa and the Caribbean (and west of the main disturbance we’re tracking this week) is a tropical wave that rolled off Africa Friday that we mentioned at the time.
Forecast models show that disturbance harmlessly sailing into the southern Windward Islands, Trinidad and Tobago, and parts of northern Venezuela by mid-week and development isn’t expected.
Meanwhile, a broad and disorganized area of low pressure over the open north Atlantic north of Bermuda – in part a leftover piece of a tropical wave that affected parts of the southeast U.S. Friday into the weekend – is moving quickly eastward and away from the U.S. Its development prospects are very limited and regardless, it poses no threat to land.
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