The National Hurricane Center has continued to up its odds that a tropical wave – an area of disturbed weather with a ripple in its wind field at around 10,000 feet up, resembling an ocean wave – will develop into a tropical depression or named storm later this week.
The next name on the list is Cristobal.
The system, which we first discussed in this newsletter almost 2 weeks ago, now has a high chance of development, most likely from Thursday into the weekend as it tracks west-northwestward in the general direction of the easternmost Caribbean islands.
Models are split on whether the system stays weak and tracks into the Caribbean or over parts of the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Sunday into Monday, or manages to thread a needle, curving north of the islands into the open central Atlantic while strengthening into early next week.
The majority of model solutions favor the weaker and southern track for now (near or through the easternmost Caribbean islands late this weekend into early next week), and given the blistering firehose of wind shear over the Caribbean, it’s unlikely the system would survive much into next week if it did develop.
Still, interests in the easternmost Caribbean – mainly from Martinique and Dominica northward to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico – should keep tabs on the forecast this week, primarily for locally heavy rains the system could bring.
While we don’t have intensity-specific guidance just yet on the system, none of our global models suggests a risk of significant strengthening this week and, if anything, this one has an uphill climb to becoming and staying a tropical system.
Interestingly, Google DeepMind – the best-in-class, AI-based modeling system that first sniffed this one out a few weeks ago – has backed off noticeably on development odds, with the latest run suggesting only 20% to 30% odds of the system clearing the formation hurdle east of the islands this week.
Needless to say, this isn’t a mainland U.S. concern, and there are plenty impediments that should knock it down if it even makes it past the islands in one piece.
Keeping an eye on the Hawaiian Islands for the weekend
A disturbance about 1,000 miles southeast of the Hawaiian Islands over the central Pacific – designated Invest 93C by the National Hurricane Center – is expected to develop into a named storm in the coming days and head toward the island chain for the weekend.
The first name of the Central Pacific hurricane season is Lala.
Models suggest Lala could be a strong tropical storm or even borderline hurricane as it approaches Hawai’i late Saturday into Sunday local time, with the possibility of it affecting multiple islands.
It doesn’t take as strong of a windstorm to cause problems across the state as it does back here on the mainland, so residents and visitors will want to closely monitor the forecasts in the days ahead.
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