Parts of Hawaii are bracing for Lala – the first named storm of the Central Pacific hurricane season – which is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by tomorrow morning local time and pass near or over the Big Island of Hawaiʻi during the day on Saturday.
A hurricane warning is in effect for Hawaii County and the Big Island in anticipation of hurricane conditions (winds of 74 mph or higher), while Maui County – including the islands of Maui, Lānaʻi, Molokaʻi, Kahoʻolawe – is under a tropical storm watch for the possibility of tropical storm winds (winds of 39 mph or higher) as Lala passes to the south.
A rare direct hurricane threat for the Big Island
While the 50th state is no stranger to brushes from tropical storms and hurricanes, only 2 hurricanes on record (since 1949) – Category 4 Iniki in 1992 and Category 1 Dot in 1959 – have passed directly over any of the main Hawaiian Islands (both struck Kauaʻi in the north).
Only three other tropical storms on record have passed directly over the state – Iselle in 2014 and Darby in 2016 (both striking the Big Island) and Olivia in 2018, the only named storm on record to pass directly over Maui and Lanai.
If Lala’s center crosses the Big Island as a hurricane, it would be the first hurricane on record to cross the island.
Even tropical storms and hurricanes that haven’t struck Hawai’i square on have caused major problems over the years, especially from terrain-enhanced rainfall caused by strong winds forced up the archipelago’s dramatic mountain slopes.
Hurricane Lane in August 2018, whose center passed 150 miles west of the Big Island, dropped an astounding 58 inches of rainfall over eastern parts of the Big Island northwest of Hilo. This is the second-highest rainfall total ever observed from a tropical cyclone in the United States, only eclipsed by Hurricane Harvey the previous August and September (2017), which dumped over 60 inches of rain in the Houston-Beaumont region of southeastern Texas.
What’s in store for Hawai’i from Lala
The most serious inland hazard from Lala will be heavy rainfall, which could top two feet across the Big Island, leading to life-threatening flooding and mudslides, particularly in areas of steep terrain.
While up to 8 inches of rain are possible across the other main islands this weekend, the Big Island and Maui will see the lion’s share of the heavy rainfall, with widespread 8- to 12-inch totals and isolated totals exceeding 20 inches on their wetter windward sides where steep slopes face east toward the prevailing winds.
Meanwhile, hurricane conditions (winds of 74 mph or stronger) are expected by early Saturday across the Big Island, with tropical storm conditions (winds of 39-73 mph) spreading into Maui County – including Maui, Lānaʻi, Molokaʻi, Kahoʻolawe – by later Saturday local time. Winds at the top of east-facing mountain slopes could be up to 30% stronger than what’s reflected by the National Hurricane’s Center forecast, which estimates only surface winds (for example 75 mph winds at the surface could be as high as 100 mph at elevation).
Additionally, treacherous surf and marine conditions, with large and breaking waves reaching 15 feet or larger, are forecast through the weekend along east-facing shores in Hawai’i.
Seas will stay elevated into early next week, but conditions will generally improve across the island archipelago by Monday as Lala pull away.
Lukewarm Atlantic walks it back
Forecast models continue to walk back their initial interest in two systems we’ve been tracking over the deep tropical Atlantic designated Invest 92L and Invest 94L.
Invest 92L – the westernmost disturbance now located only about 350 miles east of the easternmost Caribbean islands – which had an 80% chance of development only yesterday and was on the brink of becoming the Atlantic’s next named storm faltered on Thursday as it ran into a staunch wall of El-Niño-induced wind shear. NHC quickly peeled back its development odds from 80% Thursday morning to a paltry 20% by Friday morning.
Though it could bring periods of heavy rain and squally weather as it passes through the islands this weekend, 92L’s development odds look to be kaput beyond today as it heads directly into the teeth of the highest ribbon of wind shear ahead.
The disturbance to 92L’s east – designated Invest 94L – was similarly struggling early Friday. A dry and stable environment is limiting thunderstorm organization and this still has some work to do before it clears the formation hurdle.
As we discussed in previous newsletters, this one will outlast 92L but it’s left to be seen if it can muster up enough organization to become a tropical depression or named storm by this weekend or early next week.
In general, models have continued to trend away from development with 94L and our two better-performing modeling systems – the Euro and Google’s DeepMind – have pared back their odds considerably.
We’ll monitor the trends for the northeastern islands of the Caribbean for later next week as 94L or what forms from it will track near or north of the islands. For now, however, our guidance doesn’t suggest a significant threat for the islands next week.
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