The Atlantic hurricane season is on hold until further notice.
Despite two healthy tropical disturbances in the deep Atlantic last week —designated Invest 92L and Invest 94L — that flirted with becoming our next tropical cyclones, both systems ultimately fell flat in the face of relentless wind shear tearing through the central Atlantic and Caribbean.
It’s unusual for a system to have as lofty development odds at 92L did late last week, (80% odds of developing last Thursday) and ultimately fall flat, but that’s the kind of season it’s been so far for otherwise healthy-looking tropical waves moving across the typical tropical storm and hurricane conveyor belt between Africa and the Caribbean.
While we’ve had three named storms so far in 2026, they’ve all been weak and very short-lived. Assuming we get through the week without any development as expected, this will be the least active start to an Atlantic hurricane season in almost 40 years (since 1988).
El Niño is beating up on the Atlantic hurricane season. And not just any old El Niño mind you but one that’s on pace to be the strongest El Niño in perhaps a quarter millennium — one that no one alive has ever lived through.
El Niño and its counterpart La Niña have arguably the biggest known influence on global weather patterns on an interannual basis (between years), so we can be sure to see some extreme weather events this year as a result (for example, here in South Florida we can expect an exceptionally rainy winter ahead).
For the Atlantic hurricane season, the extreme result of the powerful El Niño is a net positive for those of us living at the end of hurricane alley.
Wind shear across the western Atlantic is the highest on record and that’s not expected to abate anytime soon, so even systems that appear initially healthy will have a hard time punching through the wall of wind shear that’s enveloped areas around the Americas and Caribbean.
As we’ve covered extensively in this newsletter, the better chances of a system slipping through the El Niño cracks will come from disturbances originating in the waters closer to the U.S. or in the subtropical waters east of Florida and north of the Caribbean.
For now, though, El Niño is taming the late August beast in the Atlantic that usually rears its ugly head this time of year.
If long-range models are correct, the next shot at development in the deep tropics won’t come until we approach the end of the month (toward the end of next week) with a wave moving off Africa and into the Atlantic.
If recent history is indication, however, it’ll have a long road ahead of it to become the first hurricane of the season.
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