August is typically the month we start seeing hurricanes in the Atlantic if we haven’t already.
While the first Atlantic hurricane forms on average around August 11th, the date of the first hurricane can vary wildly. In some seasons like 2016, it can happen from an initially non-tropical system in January, but in other seasons like 2002 and 2013, it doesn’t come until the second week of September.
But they do eventually come. Even in our most inactive hurricane seasons or during ones held back by El Niño – like in 1983, 1997 (very strong El Niño), 2009, 2013, and 2015 (very strong El Niño) – we had hurricanes. Multiple hurricanes. We’ve never gone through an entire hurricane season in the reliable records without a hurricane, and the last time we recorded fewer than two hurricanes in a season was over a century ago in 1925 (and that number was almost surely an undercount due to a sparse ocean observing network that relied mainly on unlucky ships).
By August 19th, most Atlantic hurricane seasons have notched their first hurricane. In fact, in about 7 in 10 seasons, we’ve seen the first hurricane formation by today’s date. So far in 2026, though, hurricanes have been a no-show.
It’s unusual and it speaks to just how hostile the background state is this hurricane season due to the historic El Niño.
Long-range models indicate the Atlantic will remain at a standstill for another week, but as anyone whose experienced a drought knows, they always come to an end and when it eventually rains, sometimes it pours. Last year it was Category 5 Hurricane Erin that broke the dry spell around this time in August, but we can hope this season with a powerful El Niño in play, the drought doesn’t end so dramatically.
A real (rude?) Atlantic awakening on the horizon?
While we’ve seen some signs of life this August in the Atlantic, we’ve not yet seen the big awakening or storm outbreak that often accelerates us into the busiest 6-week stretch of the season. We expect that by late August and if the overnight runs of our computer models – lit up like a December Christmas tree – are any indication, we may be in store for a flurry of activity to end the month.
The signal is perhaps the strongest we’ve seen yet this season in the deep tropics across nearly all of our major global weather models (both AI and conventional models) but the question is whether it sticks and persists.
For now, the strongest signal is far away from the U.S. and still about a week out so we have plenty of time to follow the trends. It’s an important reminder, however, that hurricane season might be on hold right now, but don’t expect it’ll last into September.
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