The first Cabo-Verde-style storm is taking shape over the eastern Atlantic – a strong disturbance designated Invest 96L by the National Hurricane Center – and could become the Atlantic’s next named storm in the days ahead.
96L will be the first system of the peak part of the season to run the gauntlet through El Niño’s staunch central Atlantic wall of wind shear. Forecast models are divided on whether it survives its passage through the teeth of 2026’s formidable shear zone this weekend but if it can, the surviving scenarios show the possibility of more earnest strengthening over the western Atlantic later next week.
This is over a week out and 96L is still in its infancy. With high uncertainty ahead, we’ll need to stay patient and let this one play out.
96L showing signs of organization
Satellite-derived wind estimates over 96L around daybreak Tuesday showed a sharp turning of winds and improving circulation.
Though the circulation isn’t fully closed yet, the satellite pass gave the National Hurricane Center confidence to bump up the short term development odds to high. Though thunderstorm activity remains scattered and disorganized, 96L is by no means starved of convection like its deep Atlantic predecessors 92L and 94L.
Statistical guidance shows an environment with ample moisture and decreasing wind shear over the next few days, which should position 96L for gradual development into early Friday.
By the weekend, 96L will begin to hit some obstacles – both in terms of higher wind shear and drier mid-level air – as it draws near and north of the easternmost Caribbean islands for early next week. The question is how organized it gets before then and whether it can survive beyond that point into next week.
Next week’s wildcards
The first question is whether 96L survives. The second question is where it lands on the other side of the shear zone.
A weaker system would favor a track farther south and west and perhaps into the Caribbean where wind shear will stay high and prohibitive to future development.
On the other hand, if 96L, or what forms from it, rides north of the islands, there’s an opportunity for a second act middle to later next week.
There are exceptionally wide bookends on this one, so take each modeling camp with a grain of salt beyond the next few days.
The American suite of forecast models, like the GFS, and its high-resolution hurricane counterparts, like the HAFS, strengthen 96L into a hurricane and turn it quickly into the open Atlantic over the weekend.
This fast-strengthening scenario seems like an outlier based on what we’re seeing in the early stages.
Google’s DeepMind 1,000-member machine learning-based ensemble system, on the other hand, is advertising little in the way of development this week, keeping 96L weak or undeveloped, with a better chance of development east of Florida and near the Bahamas next week (orange dots in the plot below).
It’s worth noting the model is showing low odds of development at this time frame for next week but we’ll want to keep an eye to the trends to see how those long-range odds evolve. DeepMind has lower development odds than yesterday, primarily because it dropped development odds this week east of the islands.
The European modeling system effectively splits the difference between the GFS and DeepMind, advertising a weak system riding farther west and near or north of the islands into next week, with a turn northward next week and the possibility of a second act over the subtropics east of the U.S.
The bottom line is it’s way too soon to know where this will head or even if it survives into next week. As with most systems of Cabo Verde origin, this could bring lots of drama. Best case scenario is 96L doesn’t pull itself together and falls flat in the face of the shear this weekend, a credible scenario to be sure.
That said, given that the time of year (late August/early September), we’ll need to babysit this one for a little bit before we feel comfortable that it won’t break through next week. For now, it’s one to monitor and periodically check back in on in the coming days.
Invest 95L’s development window quickly closing
Invest 95L – an area of low-pressure a few hundred miles northeast of Bermuda over the open North Atlantic – continued to struggle early Tuesday. Wind shear is expected to pick up notably later today and on Wednesday as the system accelerates northward.
If anything forms, it’ll be weak and very short-lived. Regardless, the system poses no organized threat to land this week and will get swept into the north Atlantic graveyard by Thursday.
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