Tropical Storm Edouard – the 5th named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season – formed Monday evening about 100 miles south of the Louisiana coast, but as of daybreak Tuesday had not strengthened since its christening 12 hours earlier.
Land-based radar Monday morning showed a small but organized circulation center sliding only about 30 miles south of southwestern Louisiana. Although hurricane hunters flying Edouard Tuesday morning found a steady-state circulation to start their mission, by mid-morning new data indicated Edouard had commenced strengthening in a band of stronger storms about 10 miles south of its center.
With Edouard expected to move inland near the border of Texas and Louisiana early this afternoon, it has limited time left over water to intensify. While statistical intensity guidance isn’t very bullish on Edouard becoming much stronger than it currently is now, higher fidelity hurricane models like the HAFS model suggest it could make a run at rapidly strengthening before making landfall, a high-end strengthening scenario that the National Hurricane Center has followed in its notably aggressive forecast.
Even if Edouard makes the most of its waning hours over water, it’s not expected to reach hurricane status before crossing the coast, and its small core will limit any threat of widespread damaging winds.
Tropical storm winds (winds of at least 39 mph) extend out only about 25 miles from Edouard’s center so any wind-related hazards will be contained near the coast at landfall.
Locally heavy rainfall through Wednesday
The upshot for Edouard will be the possibility of locally heavy rain from southwestern Louisiana and the Upper Texas coast to inland east-central Texas today through Wednesday.
The National Weather Service is predicting 3 to 6 inches of rain and locally up to 9 inches total from the Upper Texas Coast to parts of east-central Texas along the I-45 corridor stretching north and east of Houston.
The heavy rainfall could lead to scattered flash flooding issues and may be worsened by the storm’s slow forward speed where rainbands repeatedly move over the same areas (so-called “training” resembling the movement of boxcars on a locomotive).
Overall the footprint of heavy rain should be contained to a narrow swath and some places that need the rain could benefit from the soaking side of Edouard. Nevertheless, those in the path of Edouard should monitor local forecasts today and on Wednesday for the potential of quick-rising floodwaters where the heaviest rainbands occur.
Quiet behind Edouard
The Atlantic will stay on the quiet side behind Edouard. Unless Edouard dramatically overachieves today, the 2026 Atlantic hurricane drought will continue into the first week of September, traditionally one of the busiest weeks of the hurricane season.
Of the five named storms so far this season, three have survived only 24 hours or less and none has had winds above 60 mph (to be determined if Edouard’s bluster tops Bertha).
As we’ve discussed in previous newsletters, the average date for the first Atlantic hurricane is August 11th. The latest date of the first Atlantic hurricane in the reliable records (since 1950) is September 11th (Humberto in 2013 and Gustav in 2002).
Assuming Edouard doesn’t defy odds and we finish the week without a hurricane, 2026 will rank 5th for the latest forming first hurricane of the satellite era (since 1966).
A lot can happen in 10 days, but we’ll continue to root for a record hurricane drought through the peak the season.
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