Edouard’s remnants continued to push inland over northeastern Texas early Thursday as it drags a tail of residual rainfall across flood-impacted communities of eastern Texas.
Up to 4 to 6 inches of additional rain is forecast through today across parts of the Piney Woods region of east-central Texas where a moderate risk (threat level 3 or 4) of flash flooding is possible.
The heaviest axis of rain will stay well southeast of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, but isolated pockets of heavy rain could lead to localized flooding south of I-20 and east of I-35 through tonight.
Edouard dropped an incredible amount of rain along a narrow corridor of southeastern Texas as it moved inland over the past 36 hours, with totals reaching over 2 feet in some places.
The magnitude of the flooding was not well captured by our computer models and poorly forecast, with the National Weather Service predicting 3 to 6 inches and a maximum of 9 inches of rain for eastern Texas shortly before Edouard came ashore Tuesday. Edouard blew through those early rainfall forecasts and the storm is a good reminder that tropical systems are capable of producing extreme rainfall and models still struggle with handling the specifics of this.
For those interested in a deep dive as to why the models were caught flat-footed and why Edouard was not an example of a brown ocean effect as some media outlets prematurely speculated yesterday, I encourage you to read this excellent forensic piece from my colleague Matt Lanza over at The Eyewall.
Atlantic hurricane season hits pause as we near the peak
It’s rare to have a stormless Labor Day across the Atlantic basin. We wrote about the details of this last hurricane season. Only about once every decade do we look out across the Gulf, Caribbean, and wider Atlantic and find no active tropical systems on Labor Day weekend.
This has happened now two years in a row (2024 and 2025) and – unless something unforeseen pops up that our models are missing – it’ll happen again in 2026.
This season feels less out of place than in 2024 and 2025 when we expected very active hurricane seasons. Even so, it begs the question whether this is part of a bigger trend toward later-blooming hurricane seasons, an idea that I and other hurricane researchers explored in this paper we published last September.
Whatever the case may be, recent experience reminds us that hurricane season can play catchup in a hurry, even into October and November, so we’ll want to stay vigilant. But for those of you taking a beach vacation this Labor Day weekend, enjoy the rare September holiday escape without any worries of a brewing storm.
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