Of the six federal holidays that fall during the 6-month Atlantic hurricane season, the one you’re most likely to find a hurricane is on Labor Day.
The first Monday of September arrives right as the hurricane season is reaching its traditional peak (on or around September 10th), when the Atlantic basin is typically most active.
Some Labor Days of the not-so-distant past – like in 2023 and 1995 – featured as many as four simultaneous named storms over the holiday weekend. Labor Day weekend of 1950 was littered with 3 overlapping hurricanes – Charlie, Dog, and Easy, the last of which struck the Big Bend of Florida as a Category 3 hurricane and set a state rainfall record (45.2 inches at Yankeetown), which still holds today.
Roughly 9 out of 10 Labor Day weekends since 1950 have featured at least one active tropical cyclone across the Atlantic basin (Gulf, Caribbean, and wider north Atlantic). Only twice in the reliable records (since 1950) have two consecutive Labor Day weekends passed with no active Atlantic systems whatsoever – 1997-1998 and 2024-2025. Never in the reliable records have we gone three consecutive Labor Day Weekends with an empty tropical Atlantic map; that is, until 2026.
It’s a rare treat for the Atlantic hurricane season to pause the first week of September and let beachgoers enjoy the unofficial end of summer without worry of a looming hurricane. It’s even more rare to look out at our long-range computer models in early September and see absolutely no Atlantic tropical contenders on the horizon.
So far the Super El Niño is doing all that we hoped it would, keeping the Atlantic hurricane season remarkably quiet, with the lowest activity to-date of the reliable hurricane records (since at least 1950).
Another close call for parts of Hawaii
Unlike the Atlantic, the Pacific is replete with strong hurricanes. This week Karina and Lowell attained Category 4 and Category 5 status, respectively, while Maria became a hurricane late Wednesday over the open Pacific to their east.
Lowell is the only one of the three that could pose a direct threat to land. The forecast is not only for Category 3 Lowell to strengthen over the weekend, it could maintain its status as a major Category hurricane as it makes its closest point of approach to the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands late Monday and Monday night local time.
Officially the National Hurricane Center keeps the center of Lowell about 150 to 200 miles west of Kauaʻi at its nearest pass and models have generally trended westward and away from the state’s main islands over the past few days.
Google’s latest 1,000-member DeepMind ensemble run suggests low odds that Lowell’s center passes to within 75 miles of Kauaʻi.
Nevertheless, residents and visitors across the state will want to continue to monitor the forecasts, as powerful waves and life-threatening surf will continue to build as Lowell approaches. The large extra-high surf will likely affect harbor entrances, channels, and coastal properties and infrastructure, including roadways, through early next week.
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