Tropical disturbance will bring increased rain chances closer to Labor Day

National Hurricane Center gives system 10 percent chance of development

PEMBROKE PARK, Fla. – A tropical disturbance and its associated area of thunderstorms was located near the Dominican Republic on Friday morning, moving in the direction of South Florida. The upper level winds are not allowing it to organize, and those unfavorable winds are expected to continue until it crosses Florida into the Gulf of Mexico.

The effect on South Florida will be an increase in rain with some gusty downpours, especially late in the Labor Day weekend. The moisture surge is forecast by the European model to begin Sunday, but is delayed slightly by the American GFS model.  At this point, I expect the rain to increase on Sunday and peak on Monday into early Tuesday.

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Once the system crosses the Florida Peninsula and emerges into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, the atmospheric pattern appears more favorable, and some organization is possible. 

The National Hurricane Center is giving it a 10 percent chance of developing into at least a tropical depression in the next five days in the Gulf. People along the northern and western Gulf coast need to stay aware.

Moisture levels in the atmosphere across South Florida are already quite high. This moisture surge will simply increase the cloudiness and periods of rain accompanied by some gusty winds especially in the tropical downpours. The map above shows the atmospheric moisture content as forecast by the European model.

Saturday looks like the best day over the holiday weekend, though passing downpours are still in the forecast moving in on the ocean breeze.

Far out in the Atlantic Ocean, a system is developing that is expected to eventually turn into Hurricane Florence. It is not expected to be a threat to the U.S. coast.