A weak tropical disturbance is approaching South Florida. It will increase the chance of gusty thunderstorms beginning Monday night. It will have a brief opportunity to organize into a tropical depression near the Florida coast before it gets swept away into the Atlantic Ocean later in the week.
Elsewhere, the tropics remain quiet.
The disturbance in the Bahamas is the north end of a tropical wave that we tracked all the way across the Atlantic. Mostly, it's just a moisture surge that will move over the Florida Peninsula late Monday night and Tuesday. Separately, a cold front will push into north Florida by midweek.
Sometimes, ahead of a cold front, there is a pocket of upper-level winds that are favorable for a tropical system to organize. That appears to be the case with this system, but the window of favorability is short. Even if the system could develop a circulation, likely it would not have time to become very strong.
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The combination of the tropical disturbance and the front will make gusty thunderstorms more likely over the central and southern peninsula and/or coastal waters, especially Monday night and Tuesday. By late week, the disturbance will be absorbed into the front and together they will move out to sea. In the meantime, the chance of storms will be higher than it has been recently on the east coast of the state.
Elsewhere in the tropics, a large tropical wave is visible in the far eastern Atlantic, but it is embedded in Saharan dust, so it can't develop thunderstorms. Due to the dusty air, no tropical development is expected this week.
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