Tropical disturbance far out in Atlantic likely to develop

Meanwhile, tropical disturbance closer to home will bring plenty of rain

By Bryan Norcross - Hurricane Specialist

A moisture surge associated with a disorganized tropical disturbance arrives in South Florida on Thursday and will combine with a dip in the jet stream over the Gulf to produce a rainy pattern over the peninsula, at least through the weekend. A more-organized tropical disturbance well out in the Atlantic Ocean has a good chance of developing into at least a tropical depression as it approaches the Caribbean islands early next week. It appears to be a threat to the northeastern Caribbean islands, but the system's strength and its path beyond that point are unknown.

A combination of the moisture from a tropical disturbance that brought heavy rain to parts of Puerto Rico and an unusually strong dip in the jet stream moving in from the Gulf will produce a rainy weather pattern over South Florida at least through the weekend, and perhaps into next week. Heavy rain will be possible, which may cause some local flooding.  

There is a slight chance the northern part of the disturbance might break off and organize into a tropical depression once it is past South Florida to the north, but that would not affect our weather.

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A large tropical disturbance midway between the eastern Caribbean islands and Africa has a decent chance of organizing into a tropical depression or tropical storm as it approaches the northeastern Caribbean islands early next week. After that, we will have to watch it. Right now, computer forecast models do not show a threat to Florida or the East Coast of the U.S., but that can't be totally ruled out yet. 

If the system strengthens, it is more likely to turn north into the Atlantic. If it cannot organize, it is more likely to continue west as more of a moisture surge. It is too early to know more.

Elsewhere, no tropical systems are expected to develop in the Atlantic through the middle of next week, at least.

Two tropical systems are heading in the direction of Hawaii. Both are weakening. 

Erick will pass well south of the islands as a hurricane or tropical storm for the next couple of days and is already bringing high waves and gusty winds and spreading tropical moisture across the island chain. 

Flossie will move across or near the islands as a weakening tropical storm beginning about Monday. Another round of gusty winds and heavy rain are possible.

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