HURRICANE

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 05.5N22W. The ITCZ extends from 05.5N22W to 03N40W and to 03.5N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 01N to 09N between 02W and 20W, from 05N to 07N between 20W and 42W, and south of 08.5N between 46W and 54W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A cold front is across the NW Gulf of Mexico, extending from SW Louisiana to southern Texas. A warm front extends from offshore of Venice, Florida to SE Louisiana. A large area of heavy showers and strong thunderstorms continues to move eastward across the Gulf waters north of 28N, and extends inland across coastal areas of Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle. This storm complex is being supported by moist low level southerly return flow and upper level diffluence. The remainder of the basin is dominated by southerly return flow, occurring between a weak Atlantic ridge extending westward into the central Bahamas, and low pressure across east and southeast Mexico.

Overnight scatterometer satellite data showed fresh to strong SE winds in the south-central Gulf waters, especially south of 26N and between 84W and 90W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh SE-S winds are evident in the rest of the western half of the Gulf, especially west of 90W. Seas in the area described are also 4-6 ft. Mariners are advised that stronger winds and higher seas are likely occurring near the more intense storms moving into the NE basin. Elsewhere in the basin, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Areas of haze and smoke due to agricultural fires in Mexico and Central America continue across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the warm front will continue to lift northward and inland through late today, with strong thunderstorms ahead of it. The stationary front across the Texas coastal waters will meander there today before shifting E across the northern Gulf tonight through Mon, supported by a series of upper-level disturbances moving from W to E. This will maintain active weather over the northern Gulf through most of the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the basin, except pulsing to locally strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche through Sat night. Winds will slightly weaken Sun into early next week as the pressure gradient relaxes. Meanwhile, areas of haze and smoke due to agricultural fires in Mexico continue across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche.

Caribbean Sea

A weak and narrow Atlantic ridge extends westward along 25N to the central Bahamas. The pressure gradient between this ridge north of the Caribbean Sea and lower pressures in the deep tropics is resulting in fresh to strong SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras, where seas have built to 5-8 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 4-7 ft are found in the south- central Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in Central America continues across areas of the NW Caribbean, where smoke is reducing the visibility in the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will sink southward to 24N-25N through Sun night. This pattern will maintain strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras through Sun, reaching near gale- force Fri evening into Sat morning and again Sat night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia through Sun night. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere through early next week. Meanwhile, smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America continues across areas of the northwestern Caribbean, and will continue reducing the visibility in the Gulf of Honduras.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front enters the SW North Atlantic near 31N67W and continues southwestward to the NW Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen on satellite imagery within 90 nm east of the front, to the east of 73W. Moderate to fresh S-SW winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found ahead of the front to 60W and north of 28N. A weak high pressure pattern dominates the remainder of the western Atlantic, west of 55W, supporting light to locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas.

A broad ridge over the far north Atlantic is the most prominent feature in the central and eastern Atlantic, sustaining moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds south of 20N and west of 35W. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds and seas of 7-10 ft are noted off the coast of Morocco. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will move slowly eastward, and shift east of 55W by Mon. Active weather is expected to continue ahead of the front through Sun. Fresh southerly winds ahead of the front will continue through this afternoon, then become moderate Fri night through Sat afternoon, then diminish further. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are expected through Sun night as weak high pressure extends E to W along 24N-25N. A new front will sink southward into the waters offshore of Georgia and NE Florida early Mon and move SE and weaken through Tue.

Posted 1 hour, 48 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling