HURRICANE

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 01N to 14N with axis near 32W, moving westward at 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 15N between 26W and 40W.

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic extends from 02N to 11N with axis near 55W, moving westward at about 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 11N between 48W and 60W.

A tropical wave in the W Caribbean extends to the S of 21N with axis near 80W, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 13N.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea- Bissau close to 12N16W to 06N25. No ITCZ is apparent. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 14N between 10W and 22W.

Gulf Of Mexico

Strong thunderstorms are moving off the Texas and NE Mexico coasts. These storms are producing frequent lightning, gusty winds and locally rough seas. Lower pressures remains across the western half of the basin while weak surface ridging extends the waters E of 90W. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate SE winds W of 90W and light to gentle variable winds elsewhere, except for fresh SE winds over the Bay of Campeche. Seas are slight to moderate, except in the area of thunderstorms where rough seas are expected.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging will continue to dominate across the Gulf through Sun. As a result, winds will pulse moderate to fresh during the evenings through the weekend. A weak cold front moving across the far NE Gulf will continue to support gentle W to NW winds over that region this morning. Otherwise, fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse near the N and W portions of the Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoons and at night for the next two days. Haze west of 89W due to agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for at least the next couple of days, impacting visibility at times.

Caribbean Sea

A tropical wave currently over the western Caribbean is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, the Windward Passage and the SW Caribbean. Smoke from agricultural fires over Central America is causing reduced visibilities over the Gulf of Honduras. The gradient between high pressure N of the area and lower pressure across the SW waters due to the extension of the E Pac monsoon into Colombia continues to support fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean and moderate to fresh winds over the E waters. Gentle to moderate winds are over the Gulf of Honduras while light to gentle winds dominate elsewhere over the NW waters. Seas are mainly moderate, except for rough seas to 9 ft over the south-central region.

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between high pressure and associated ridging north of the area and low pressure along near Colombia will force fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through today. Winds will become moderate to fresh from Thu through the weekend. The tropical wave is forecast to move across Central America into the E Pacific waters tonight into Thu.

Atlantic Ocean

Surface ridging extending from high pressure over the NW Atlantic is contributing towards moderate or lighter winds across the region while a weak cold front moves across the NE Florida offshore waters this morning. The remainder subtropical Atlantic remains under the influence of surface ridging, which is suppoting gentle to moderate winds. The ridge is intersected by a weak surface trough from 31N46W SW to the NE Caribbean, which is generating scattered showers across the offshore zones E of the central and southern Bahamas. Seas are moderate basin-wide.

For the forecast W of 55W, scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the cold front as it moves eastward toward the Greater Antilles later this week and into the weekend, bringing moderate to fresh winds. Otherwise, winds and seas away from the thunderstorms should remain quiescent for the next few days across the forecast waters.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos