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For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
East-Central Subtropical Atlantic: An area of low pressure located about 900 miles northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has been producing a small but persistent area of showers and thunderstorms to the east of its center since this morning. However, the low is forecast to move southwestward at 10 to 15 mph into an area of stronger upper-level winds tonight and tomorrow, and additional development is not expected.
No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for this system unless conditions warrant. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on May 15, 2024, and Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the remainder of the off-season. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days, low, 10 percent.
Posted 4 days ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Berg/Brown
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 06N16W. The ITCZ extends from 06N16W to 00N27W to 06N41W to 04N51W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 07N and between 16W and 39W.
Gulf Of Mexico
The strong thunderstorms affecting eastern Texas and Louisiana are also impacting the nearshore waters of the NW Gulf of Mexico. A subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends across the Gulf waters, supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas.
For the forecast, the high pressure system will weaken over the next few days, resulting in diminishing winds and decreasing seas across the basin. Elsewhere, winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula and south-central Gulf each evening through the forecast period.
Caribbean Sea
The subtropical ridge north of the Greater Antilles continues to sustain fresh to strong easterly winds fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds south of Hispaniola, Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and 4-6 ft are found in the remainder of the central and NW Caribbean waters. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Pockets of low-level moisture traveling across the Caribbean are producing isolated, weak showers.
For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will gradually weaken over the next few days. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds in the Gulf of Honduras, Windward Passage and offshore southern Hispaniola will diminish midweek. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will prevail. Northerly swell will push rough seas through the passages in the NE Caribbean through the middle of the week.
Atlantic Ocean
A cold front extends from 31N43W to 21N59W. A pre-frontal trough are analyzed from 25N45W to 17N49W. A few showers are found east of the trough. Fresh to strong southerly winds are found ahead of the front to 35W and north of 28N. Seas in these waters are 8-9 ft. Fresh to strong westerly winds and seas of 10-13 ft are present north of 29N and between 51W and 62W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted south of 26N and west of the front. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge centered between the SE US and Bermuda.
The rest of the central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by a 1029 mb high pressure system located over the Azores. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in western Africa support fresh to strong NE-E winds north of 12N and east of 35W. Seas in the area described are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will shift eastward and weaken over the far southeastern waters through early Tue. Fresh to strong W winds will prevail N of 28N and east of 65W, decreasing Wed. Seas will peak near 14 ft this afternoon. Also, fresh to locally strong winds will cover the waters S of 22N and W of 70W through late today, especially at the entrance of the Windward Passage. More tranquil marine conditions are expected afterwards as high pressure becomes centered over the NW waters.
Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado
