HURRICANE


Florida
South Florida

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For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

Posted 3 months ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Cangialosi

Special Features

Gale-Force Wind Warning In The Sw North Atlantic Ocean

A cold front will be along 31N74W 26N80W, in 12 hours, on Monday night. The forecast consists of near gale-force to gale-force NW winds, and rough seas, from 27N northward from the cold front westward. Expect on Monday night elsewhere from the cold front westward: strong to near gale-force NW winds, and moderate to near rough seas. Expect also from 29N northward between the cold front and the line 31N62W 29N65W: strong SW winds and moderate seas.

The current conditions are: broad moderate to fresh anticyclonic surface wind flow, and slight to moderate seas, are from 60W westward. The cold front passes through 31N76W, beyond N Florida, into the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, are from 26N80W 31N65W northward.

Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions, and plan their routes accordingly. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecasts, and the Offshore Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the websites: https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 06N11W, to 01N17W. The ITCZ continues from 01N17W, to the Equator along 21W, to the Equator along 26W, to 04S36W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 06N southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

Gulf Of Mexico

A cold front passes through N Florida, to 27N90W, beyond the coast of Mexico near 24N97W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are to the north of 26N82W 24N90W 20N96W. This cold front is the boundary that will move into the SW North Atlantic Ocean by Monday night. The SPECIAL FEATURES gale-force wind warning is associated with the cold front.

Moderate to fresh NE winds are from the cold front northward from 90W westward. Gentle to moderate winds are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate seas are in the coastal waters of SW Louisiana. Slight seas are elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front extending from northern Florida to NE Mexico near 24N97W will reach from near Tampa Bay, Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico this morning and exit the basin Tue morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected behind the front tonight through Tue morning. Low pressure may form over the western Gulf on Thu, then track east- northeast toward the NE Gulf by Fri dragging a cold front across the basin. Expect increasing winds and seas with this next frontal system along with possible numerous showers and thunderstorms. Light density smoke, originating from widespread fire activity in Mexico is over most of the Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

Strong to near gale-force NE to E winds, and rough seas, are within 120 nm of the coast of Colombia between 73W and 77W. Strong NE to E winds, and moderate to rough seas, cover the rest of the waters that are between 64W and 78W, including in the Gulf of Venezuela. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong SE winds are from 20N southward from 82W westward in the NW corner of the area. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are elsewhere from 64W eastward. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 18/1200 UTC, are: 0.10 in San Juan in Puerto Rico. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean through Tue. Afterward, winds will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds as a cold front moves across the western Atlantic. This front push southward across the northwest Caribbean Tue, then reach eastern Cuba on Wed while dissipating. Pulsing fresh to strong winds will continue near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period.

Atlantic Ocean

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force wind warning for Monday night/early Tuesday morning, in the SW North Atlantic Ocean.

A surface ridge passes through a 32N25W 1025 mb high pressure center, to 30N33W 28N54W, to the Bahamas near 23N75W, toward NW Cuba. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 10N northward.

Rough seas are from 30N northward between 36W and 46W; and from 09N to 25N from 30W eastward. Moderate to rough seas are from 10N to 20N between 30W and 50W; from 20N northward from 20W eastward; and from 13N southward between 50W and 60W. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to strong NE winds are within 1300 nm to the south of the line 31N21W 25N33W 19N50W. Fresh NE winds are from 16N southward from 50W westward. Fresh to strong SW winds are to the north of 28N72W 31N63W. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front extending from 31N78W to northeast Florida will reach from near 31N70W to the Straits of Florida Tue morning, from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas by Tue afternoon, then weaken as it reaches from near 31N56W to eastern Cuba by Wed morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected ahead and behind the front. Winds are forecast to reach minimal gale force tonight into Tue, affecting mainly the waters N of 27N. The front will move east of the area on Thu. High pressure in its wake will quickly shift eastward through Fri night, allowing for fresh to strong southerly winds to develop over the western half of the forecast waters as low pressure tracks northeastward along a coastal front near northeast Florida.

Posted 9 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Mt/Gr