Economists use statistical markers to predict World Cup 2014 winner

Economists' final game prediction: World Cup 2014 host to win

MIAMI – There is no need for Miami soccer fans to go to Little Havana to meet with a Babalawo, or to Little Haiti to see a Voodoo priestess. Financial experts want you to save your money. 

In a world where mathematics and soccer mix, the winner of the 2014 World Cup -- which starts on June 12 -- is going to be Brazil, both Goldman Sachs and Bloomberg experts predict. Both studies used statistical markers for every game.

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The economists at Goldman Sachs released a detailed analysis that was based on the teams' track record. They predict the winner will be Brazil, and the final game will be against Argentina. They expect Spain to be knocked out during the semifinals.

Bloomberg published a table of predictions based on the simulated results of an analysis of up to 100,000 variants.

Under Bloomberg's scheme, the final game will be Spain against Brazil.  Bloomberg has Argentina and Germany reaching the semi-finals.  Spain will beat Argentina on penalties, Bloomberg predicts.

As for other Latin American teams, Bloomberg predicts Colombia will reach all quarters, and Uruguay and Mexico will get to the knockout stages. Chile, Ecuador and Honduras will be eliminated in the first round.

Goldman Sachs has Colombia as the finalist of Group C, but predicts Italy will beat them to play against Spain. Ecuador will be the finalist of Group E, but Argentina will eliminate it. Honduras, Costa Rica and Mexico don't stand a chance.


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