Will Manso: Clemson-Canes prediction

UM faces tough home test

MIAMI – The Coastal.  That's the goal.  That's the 'Canes mantra.

But on Saturday, the Clemson Tigers come to town and it'll be anything but a coast.

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Miami's chances of finally winning the Coastal Division of the ACC for the first time in school history won't be made or ended against the Tigers.

Still, a major upset win would go a long way in proving that maybe this really is the year to achieve what should be a modest goal.

This is the point the program has reached.  Just playing for a conference title would be a major accomplishment.

The Canes have never had that chance.

What are their chances of beating Clemson?

Well, first of all they'll need to keep creating turnovers.  Miami is tops in the nation in turnover margin.  That might come as a surprise to many who knock UM's defense.

The stat is a blessing and a curse.  The blessing is obvious.  The Canes have been able to force enough big plays in their wins to change the momentum of a game.

The curse though is that Miami lives and dies by the turnover.

Normally, highly ranked teams like Clemson avoid making many mistakes.  Yet, the Tigers are near the bottom half of the country in turnover margin.

Miami must create turnovers to have a chance to win this game.

It will take much more than that though, and Brad Kaaya is the "much more" part of that equation.

While Tigers QB Deshaun Watson deservedly gets a lot of praise entering the game, Kaaya undeservedly doesn't get enough praise nationally.

He's the single biggest reason Miami really has any chance in this game.

Kaaya has proven in a short time that no stage is too big for him.  He can't do it alone.  He needs protection from his offensive line, and that could be a major issue Saturday.

Kaaya leads the ACC in passing yards per game and has avoided making many mistakes.  Give him time and he can burn you.

Meanwhile, Watson has been one of the big reasons why the Tigers turnover differential is so bad.  He's already thrown 7 interceptions.

So how does Miami pull off the upset?  The formula is there.  Keep forcing Watson and the Tigers into mistakes and give Kaaya time to do this thing.

Will it happen?  I would love to be optimistic and say yes, but it's asking a lot from a defense prone to letting opposing offenses chew up big yards down the field.

If the defense can force Watson into a big mistake or two, Miami does have a chance.  I think Kaaya holds up his part of the bargain.

I expect a close game in which Clemson just has too much late and pulls away.

Prediction:

Clemson- 38

Miami- 28

 

UM Prediction record- 5-1