Well-known hurricane prognosticators Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray issued their 2013 Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast Wednesday, calling for above-average activity.
They are predicting 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. The 1981-2010 seasonal averages are 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
The above-average numbers predicted for 2013 are, in part, related to warmer than normal sea surface temperatures over much of the tropical Atlantic and a relatively low likelihood of El Niño.
The most frequently asked question that I get is “What kind of a hurricane season are we going to have this year?” While the outlooks from various seasonal forecasters are interesting, the numbers don’t tell the whole story. It just takes one hurricane over your community to make for a bad season. And no one can forecast this far in advance with any certainty where and when the storms will strike.
The most important thing to remember is that there should be no correlation whatsoever between the seasonal forecasts and your hurricane preparation. History teaches that Florida has had more hurricanes and more major hurricanes than any other state.
If we are fortunate enough to live in Florida, we need to be prepared for hurricanes.