July, despite a few very significant tropically-driven floods, will end on a mostly quiet note. Organized tropical activity so far this hurricane season has been lackluster, and the month will close with the least active start to a hurricane season in 16 years.
Of course, as we’ve discussed in previous newsletters, activity this early in the season isn’t a good predictor for what’s necessarily ahead. Historically, 92% of Atlantic tropical activity happens from August onwards, and it’s August and September that hold the cards for the season.
Years like 2004 have ended July without a single named and quickly woken up to give us blockbuster hurricane seasons. Even in years with below average hurricane activity like 1992, a season that didn’t see the first named storm until August 17th, the “A” storm was one of the most catastrophic and consequential in U.S. history, a hurricane forever inscribed in the landscape of South Florida.
So we stay vigilant and don’t let the early whims of the hurricane season fool us. At the point we start wondering “where are the hurricanes?” or turn to leave the season for dead is often when the season rears its ugly head. It’s become an almost rite-of-passage, but if you’ve made it this far, you’re likely part of the choir, the stalwarts of hurricane alley with a disaster plan at arm’s reach.
For those of you needing to shore up your family hurricane plans, use the days ahead to replenish your supplies, especially if your plan is to shelter in place. Starting tomorrow, many items that should be part of your disaster kit will be permanently tax free for Floridians, like batteries, smoke and carbon monoxide detectors, portable generators, and waterproof tarps. Know whether you live in a hurricane storm surge evacuation zone and if you do, where you plan to evacuate if given the order.
CLICK HERE to download the Local 10 Weather Authority’s 2025 hurricane survival guide.
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