Tropics Watch

Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2020. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

Posted 2 months ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven

Tropics Watch Satellite

Special Features

Central Atlantic Gale Warning

A 1011 mb low is forecast to be along a west Atlantic front on 23/1800 UTC sun evening near 59W. Winds to gale force are expected sun evening through mon evening, mainly north of 30N, between 50W-63W, with this low pressure system. Expect seas of 10 to 16 ft in the area. Please read the latest high seas forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under awips/wmo headers miahsfat2/fznt02 kNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning

A 1016 mb low is west of the canary islands near 23W, moving slowly southwest with a surface trough extending north from the low. Meteo France is forecasting northeast to east gale force winds for southern portions of the zone madeira and northern portions of the zone canarias, beginning at 23/0000 UTC and lasting through 23/1800 UTC, Sunday evening. This encompasses the general area from 27N- 32N between 12W-22W, including the canary islands. Near gales are expected elsewhere over portions of the zones madeira, tarfaya, canarias, meteor and irving through Monday. Please refer to the Meteo-France high seas forecast listed on their website www.meteofrance.com/previsions- meteo- marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for further details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 12W to 20W. The ITCZ extends from 20W to 30W to the coast of Brazil near 38W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 05N-05S between 10W-40W.

Gulf of Mexico

A 1028 mb high is centered over south Alabama near 88W. Broken to overcast low clouds are over the southwest Gulf west of 94W. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over the straits of Florida moving west. Fresh northeast winds are present over the southeast Gulf, while gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high.

With high pressure now having settled in over the area, winds over the basin will diminish through sun night. The next cold front will move over the northwest Gulf mon night and tue, followed by a stronger front tue night and wed. This front will quickly exit the Gulf by late wed night. Gale force northwest to north winds will follow in behind the front over the west-central and southwest Gulf waters on wed and wed night.

Caribbean Sea

A cold front extends from the windward passage near 74W to east Jamaica near 77W to north Nicaragua near 83W. Scattered showers are within 60 m of the front. Fresh to locally strong north winds cover the northwest Caribbean Sea behind the front, including the Yucatan channel. Gentle to moderate tradewinds are over the central and east Caribbean, except for fresh to locally strong near the coast of north Colombia. In the upper levels, zonal flow with strong subsidence is noted.

Strong northeast to east will pulse each night through wed night off the coast of Colombia. A cold front extending from northwest Haiti to eastern Jamaica and to inland northeastern Nicaragua will become stationary from Puerto Rico to southeastern Nicaragua sun night, then dissipate by tue. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected west of the front until mon morning, especially through the windward passage and to the Lee of Cuba. Another cold front will move into the northwestern Caribbean wed night, reach from eastern Cuba to the northeast part of Honduras early thu afternoon and from the windward passage to the northeast part of Nicaragua thu night. This front will be followed by fresh to strong north winds and building seas, including the Yucatan channel and vicinity waters.

Atlantic Ocean

See section above for details on the two gale warnings in the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front over the west Atlantic extends from 56W to 65W to the windward passage near 74W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. Strong northeast winds are behind the front. Elsewhere, a surface trough is east of the leeward and windward islands from 58W to 58W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough axis. A 1016 mb low is west of the canary islands near 23W. Scattered showers are within 240 nm of the north quadrant.

The west Atlantic cold front will will slow down as it moves across the far southeast waters sun, and to east of 65W north off 22N sun night. The portion of the front south of 22N will slowly shift to the east of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands on mon. Fresh to strong northeast winds behind the front will diminish to mainly fresh winds on sun. Low pressure is expected to form along the front tonight near 61W. A tight gradient between the low and high pressure over the area will result in near gale force north to northeast winds to far northeast waters sun. Large north swell west of the front will slowly decay as it propagates southeastward through sun night. Winds and seas will diminish early next week, then increase over the northwest waters mon night through tue in advance of the next cold front. This cold front is forecast to move over the northwest waters tue night, then reach from near 77W to east-central Florida wed, from near 76W to south Florida wed night, then move across the rest of western part of the area early on thu. It will reach from near 69W to 71W and to the windward passage thu night. Fresh to strong west to northwest winds and building seas will follow in behind this front.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Formosa

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature