HURRICANE


Florida
South Florida

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For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Reinhart

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave extends along 18W in the eastern Atlantic, from 03N to 18N, moving W at 20 kt. Associated convection is isolated and weak.

A tropical wave extends along 52W in the Atlantic, from 06N to 23N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted ahead of the wave axis from 09N to 11N between 52W and 61W.

A strong tropical wave extends across the western Caribbean from 09N81W to 21N76W. Isolated moderate convection is observed from 11N to 22N, between 68W and 82W. Fresh to strong winds are observed behind the wave in the central Caribbean, where seas are 8-10 ft.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 07N22W. The ITCZ continues from 07N22W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Convection is isolated and weak along these boundaries.

Gulf Of Mexico

Weak high pressure in the NE gulf dominates the pattern tonight. In the western Gulf, SE winds are moderate with 2-4 ft seas. In the southern Gulf, E winds are moderate to locally fresh near the NW Yucatan Peninsula with 3-5 ft seas. Conditions are more favorable in the NE Gulf, with light to gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will extend across the northern Gulf through Tue night before drifting north of the area through mid week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail through this time. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night near the NW Yucatan peninsula through Tue night.

Caribbean Sea

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above for details on the active wave in the central Caribbean Sea.

A robust tropical wave is causing strong E winds in the central Caribbean where seas are 8-10 ft. Winds are moderate to fresh in the eastern Caribbean with 6-8 ft seas. Winds are gentle to moderate in the NW Caribbean with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, a strong tropical wave extending from eastern Cuba to western Panama will continue moving quickly westward across the western Caribbean through Mon, followed by a broad surge of strong winds and high seas. Winds and seas will then diminish over most of the basin through mid week as the tropical wave moves west of the basin. Looking ahead, another tropical wave will move across the northeast Caribbean Tue and into the central Caribbean Wed and Thu. Winds and seas will start to increase again by Thu over the south-central Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the area following this tropical wave.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above for details on the waves moving across the basin.

A weak gradient south of a high pressure ridge dominates the pattern in the western Atlantic. Winds are gentle to moderate from the SE, with locally fresh conditions near the southern Bahamas. In the central Atlantic, gentle E winds north of 28N increase to moderate south of 28N. In the eastern Atlantic, moderate NE winds dominate, with an area of fresh winds south of the Canary Islands. Buoys and altimeter data agree that seas are generally 3-5 ft north of 27N and 5-7 ft south of 27N across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge extending from the central Atlantic to northeast Florida will persist through the week. The northern portion of a strong tropical wave currently over eastern Cuba is supporting strong winds and rough seas near the Turks and Caicos Islands and southern Bahamas. These winds and seas will diminish through tonight as the wave moves westward, but strong winds may still pulse off the northern coast of Hispaniola through Tue night.

Posted 23 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Flynn