For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, high, 80 percent.
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.
Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Cangialosi
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is centered near 20.7N 94.5W at 19/2100 UTC or 350 nm SSE of mouth of The Rio Grande moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to approach the coast of northeastern Mexico on Saturday and make landfall there Saturday night. Satellite wind data and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 30 kt (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected through landfall, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or Saturday. The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated totals of 8 inches, along the eastern coast of Mexico from the northern portions of the state of Veracruz across the state of Tamaulipas. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with isolated higher amounts possible across far south Texas. The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. Swells generated by this system are forecast to affect eastern Mexico and southern Texas this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Potential Tropical Cyclone Four NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
A tropical wave is W of the Cabo Verde Islands along 28W from 19N southward, moving westward about 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 25W and 30W.
A second tropical wave is entering the Caribbean Sea with axis along 61W from 19N southward into eastern Venezuela, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave is enhancing convection across the Windward Islands and regional Atlantic waters, and also over eastern Venezuela. Moisture associated with this wave will continue to affect the Windward Islands tonight and Sat while spreading northward over the Leeward Islands.
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W, passing south of the Cabo Verde Islands at 13N23W to 08N47W. The ITCZ continues from 08N47W to 10N60W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between 30W and 50W, and from 08N to 13N between 55W and 60W.
Gulf Of Mexico
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is over the SW Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for portions of the coast of NE Mexico and south Texas in association with this system. Please, see the Special Features section for more details.
Elsewhere, the Atlantic ridge extends across Florida into the eastern Gulf, producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. Winds increase to near gale force over the SW Gulf based on the most recent scatterometer pass. Seas are 1 to 3 ft, except in the SW Gulf where moderate seas are likely.
Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are observed over the northern Gulf while numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over the SW Gulf, particularly from 20N to 23N between 92W and 95W. The latter is related to Potential Tropical Cyclone Four. Some shower activity is near South Florida in a SE wind flow.
For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Four will move to 22.0N 95.6W Sat morning, 23.8N 96.8W Sat afternoon, inland to 25.6N 98.1W Sun morning, inland to 27.1N 99.6W Sun afternoon, and dissipate Mon morning.
Latest scatterometer data indicate moderate to locally fresh trades over the central Caribbean, in the lee of eastern Cuba, and to the NW of Jamaica. An altimeter data show seas of 8 to 9 ft near the coast of Colombia, and 4 to 6 ft across the remainder of the central Caribbean. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted elsewhere except in parts of the NW Caribbean.
Daytime heating and local sea breezes combined with available moisture support scattered showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Greater Antilles. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the NW Caribbean likely associated with an inverted trough.
For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh trade winds across the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE winds are also expected across the Windward Passage tonight and Sat night. The ridge will weaken Sun night through Tue, diminishing the winds across the region to gentle to moderate speeds.
As it is normal for this time of the year, the Bermuda-Azores High dominates the Atlantic forecast waters, with the associated ridge extending westward across the Bahamas and Florida. Under the influence of this system, a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is noted. W of 35W, seas are generally in the 4 to 6 ft range, except N of 27N and W of 55W where seas of 3 to 4 ft prevail. Higher seas of 6 to 7 ft are E of 35W in the Meteo France area of responsibility. An area of isolated showers and thunderstorms is N of 27N between 46W and 49W related to an-upper level low spinning near 31N45W.
For the forecast W of 55W, the Bermuda Azores High combined with the passage of a tropical wave across the eastern and central Caribbean will support moderate to fresh easterly winds S of 25N through Sun morning. Locally strong winds are likely N of Hispaniola and the approaches of the Windward Passage tonight and Sat night. The ridge will weaken Sun evening into early next week, thus diminishing these winds to gentle to moderate speeds.
Posted 1 day, 1 hour ago by NHC Forecaster Gr