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Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Posted 33 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropics Watch Satellite

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is in the east Atlantic extending south of 24N with axis near 26W, moving west around 10 kt. A large area of enhanced moisture is seen on tpw imagery in association with this tropical wave. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N- 12N between 22W-27W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending south of 26N with axis near 39W, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N-09N between 38W-43W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 78W, moving westward around 20 kt. A plume of enhanced moisture accompanies this tropical wave, as seen on tpw imagery. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 09N-17N between 78W-83W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The Monsoon Trough is analyzed from the coast of Mauritania near 16W to 46W. The ITCZ extends from 46W to 59W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the section above, no significant convection is currently occurring.

Gulf of Mexico

Upper-level anticyclonic flow is over the southeastern Gulf. Mid- level troughing extends along the eastern seaboard of the U.S. Southwestward to the northeast Gulf. Mid-level troughing is also over the southwest Gulf. A surface ridge extends from the Bermuda high to the Florida straits to the central Gulf. The western and central Gulf are free of any significant precipitation. Isolated to scattered showers and tstorms are found over portions of the eastern Gulf, and near the U.S. Gulf coast from Louisiana to Florida peninsula.

The surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters into mid week producing mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight seas with the exception of moderate to locally fresh winds near the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula due to local effects. Looking ahead, the ridge will shift north starting mid week, ahead of a trough that will move westward across Florida and into the southeast Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the Caribbean.

Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends across the Florida straits, contributing toward light to gentle winds in the Caribbean north of 18.5N. Relatively dry air due to Saharan dust covers most of the eastern Caribbean east of 72W. In the far southwest Caribbean, the east Pacific Monsoon Trough is inducing scattered strong convection mainly south of 11N between 79W-84W. An earlier ascat pass shows fresh to strong trades across the central portion of the basin, with moderate trades elsewhere south of 18.5N.

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge north of the area and the colombian low will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through mid week. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras tue night. A tropical wave over the central Caribbean will reach the western basin tonight and move out of the basin through mid week. Another tropical wave farther east in the Atlantic will approach the eastern Caribbean by mid week, and move across the central Caribbean by late week.

Atlantic Ocean

A strong mid- to upper-level trough located over the far eastern U.S. Just inland from the Atlantic seaboard is inducing large scale rising motion ahead of it in the Atlantic north of 25N between 65W-75W, where scattered moderate showers and tstorms are observed. Tpw imagery shows enhanced moisture being drawn north- northeastward from the Florida straits and Bahamas. Fresh south winds are seen on an earlier ascat pass north of 27N between 73W-78W. The 1023 mb Bermuda high is near 60W. A broad surface ridge extends southwestward from the high, south of the weather described above, toward Cuba.

Fresh south winds are expected over the waters north of 27N between 70W and 80W tonight due to the pressure gradient between high pressure to the east and lower pressure over Florida. Otherwise, expect fresh to locally strong winds off the north coast of Hispaniola through the entire forecast period.

Posted 1 hour, 16 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Hagen/Landsea

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature