For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for subtropical development over the northwest Atlantic.
Northwestern Atlantic: A non-tropical low pressure system centered over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean about 300 miles north of Bermuda is producing storm-force winds. Although the cyclone is producing some thunderstorm activity near the center, it is embedded in a cold air mass with nearby frontal boundaries. The low is expected to move northeastward today and northward tonight, bringing the system over much colder waters and across Atlantic Canada by early Tuesday. Therefore, it is unlikely that the low will transition to a subtropical or tropical cyclone. Nevertheless, the system is expected to remain a strong non-tropical low during the next day or so, and additional information, including storm-force wind warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on May 15, 2023, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the off-season. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, low, near 0 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
Posted 2 months ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Cangialosi
Caribbean Gale Warning: The gradient between an Atlantic high pressure ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to induce strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea, pulsing to gale-force winds at night near the coast of Colombia through Tue night. Seas are forecast to peak around 10-12 ft each morning in the vicinity of 12N76W.
Atlantic large swell event: A storm force low over the N Atlantic has generated a large long-period NW swell. The associated cold front will propagate into the waters E of 55W tonight. Seas greater than 12 ft will propagate into the northern waters in the wake of the front, N of 30N between 40W and 50W tonight. Seas will peak near 17 ft over the waters N of 30N between 40W and 45W Sun night. The swell will propagate southward and eastward, reaching as far south as 25N early Mon before starting to subside. Seas over the discussion waters associated to this swell even will subside below 12 ft Tue.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 00N25W. The ITCZ continues from 00N25W to 04N37W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 20W and 52W.
Gulf Of Mexico
High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Fresh to strong winds are noted N of the Yucatan peninsula as well as off Veracruz, Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range N of the Yucatan peninsula, 4-6 ft W of 90W, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, high pressure ridging extending into the eastern Gulf of Mexico from the western Atlantic will slowly shift south through late Mon. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off the Yucatan peninsula during the evening hours through the period. A weak cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf waters by early Sat and move southeastward before dissipating Sat night. Another cold front will enter the NW Gulf late Mon night and move slowly southeastward. The front will reach from northern Florida to NE Mexico by late Tue and the southeastern Gulf to the central Gulf by late Wed. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will follow behind the front. Fresh east to southeast winds develop in the NW Gulf Wed and Wed night.
Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.
Strong to gale-force winds are noted within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted elsewhere over the central Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are found over the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range over the south central Caribbean. Elsewhere, seas of 4-6 ft prevail, except in the lee of Cuba where seas are in the 3-4 ft range.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between an Atlantic high pressure ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will support strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea, pulsing to near gale to gale-force winds at night near the coast of Colombia through Tue night. Winds will pulse to strong in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through the weekend. Strong trade winds will prevail over the Gulf of Honduras into early next week. Fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the eastern and central Caribbean through the period.
High pressure of 1021 mb is centered near 30N62W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Moderate to fresh winds are found off the coast of northern Florida. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas in the 8-10 ft range are noted N of 25N between 35W and 45W. Elsewhere, seas of 5-7 ft prevail, except 4-5 ft in the vicinity of the high center.
For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure will prevail over the area through the weekend, then shift slightly southward next week as a cold front moves across the waters north of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds will be in the vicinity of the cold front along with building seas. Winds are expected to reach near gale- force speeds on either side of the front north of 29N the middle of next week as the front reaches from near 31N60W to the central Bahamas and to east- central Cuba.
Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Al