The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia near 09W to 21W. The ITCZ continues from 21W to 48W. Scattered moderate isolated strong from 02S-04N between 05W-13W south of Liberia. Along the ITCZ, scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm to the north and south of the ITCZ between 19W- 30W. Latest water vapor imagery indicate the presence of drier air limiting convection west of 38W to the coast of Brazil.
Gulf of Mexico,
A surface trough is in the bay of Campeche along 91W/92W from 21N southward. Broken to overcast clouds and possible showers are within 260 nm to the northwest of the trough. Areas of fog stretch from the lower rio grande valley to the northeast Texas coast. Ridge remains in control with a 1021 mb high pressure centered over Mississippi and Alabama. Ascat indicate light to moderate anticyclonic wind flow across the Gulf of Mexico.
High pressure will shift east of the area today in response to a cold front that will move off the Texas coast early fri. Weak low pressure may form along the front over the northern Gulf fri and shift northeast of the area into sun, allowing the front to stall and weaken over the western Gulf. A ridge of high pressure will build across the central Gulf mon, before shifting east of the area late mon ahead of a stronger cold front expected to move off the Texas coast tue.
A dissipating stationary front passes through the windward passage enhancing scattered showers and tstorms over the region. Drier air is apparent in the water vapor imagery, from southeast of Hispaniola to the leeward island and west of Jamaica across the northwest Caribbean Sea. An inverted trough is seen in the mid levels in the southwest Caribbean Sea which is enhancing scattered moderate isolated strong convection across the southwest Caribbean along the coast of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica, mainly south of 12N. A few scattered showers are still lingering north of 12N to 18N. Ascat suggest moderate trades across the east and central Caribbean while a northeast moderate to fresh winds are seen west of 74W.
High pressure building north of the area will support moderate to fresh trade winds across the region through early next week, with fresh to strong winds pulsing off the coast of Colombia. Long- period northeast to east swell will begin to propagate through the tropical north Atlantic waters sat night and into early next week.
A stationary front curves through 51W to 59W, to 73W near the southeast Bahamas. A cold front is moving eastward behind the stationary front from 57W to 67W to 74W in the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 120 nm on either side of the boundary north of 20N. Further east, a cold front extends south from a 1008 mb low pressure to 20W to 30W. A few showers are noticeable in the vicinity of the front. A 1033 mb high pressure remains in control across the remainder of the basin.
A cold front to the southeastern Bahamas will continue southeast and merge with a stationary front over the southeast part of the area. The merged front will continue to move east of the area tonight, leaving a stationary front through the southern Bahamas into sat. A weak cold front will move across the northwest waters fri night, then be overtaken by another cold front that moves off the carolinas on sat. This front will weaken to a stationary front late on sat and to a trough on sun that will retrograde westward as a trough through sun night as strong high pressure builds southward across the waters northeast and east of the Bahamas. The associated tight gradient will bring increasing winds along with building seas over these same waters beginning late on sun. These conditions are expected to begin to diminish on mon afternoon.
Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Torres