HURRICANE

Tropical Waves

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W from 12N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are occurring along the axis of the tropical wave from 05N to 08N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W from 11N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 37W and 43W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W from 12N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 06N to 10N between 52W and 56W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W from 13N southward to Venezuela, moving W at 5-10 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are near the axis of the tropical wave with most activity occurring in Venezuela.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 14N17W to 12N18W. The ITCZ continues from 12N18W to 06N23W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 05N27W to 06N39W, then continues W of another tropical wave from 05N41W to 05N52W. Outside of the convection associated with tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 10N and E of 24W.

Gulf Of Mexico

Isolated showers are noted moving across the western Gulf. A 1017 mb high pres is noted in the north-central Gulf near 30N90W. Otherwise, light to gentle winds prevail across the basin with seas to 2 ft.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will support gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the basin through early this week. Weak low pressure may form over the western Gulf by the middle of the week.

Caribbean Sea

Scattered moderate convection is noted across the central Caribbean from 11N to 21N between 74W and 83W. In the eastern and central Caribbean, gentle to moderate trade winds prevail. Locally fresh winds are noted near northern Venezuela. Seas in this area range 2-4 ft. In the western Caribbean, light to gentle winds are noted with seas to 2 ft.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to moderate trade winds across the Caribbean through mid week, with occasional fresh pulses along the northern coast of South American and off Honduras.

Atlantic Ocean

A weakening stationary front extends through the northern Bahamas from 31N75W to 25N79W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the front and to the east of it from 20N to 31N between 61W and 79W. Light to gentle winds mostly prevail across the area with moderate westerly winds off the NE Florida coast. Seas range 4-6 ft.

In the Central Atlantic, ridging extends across the area anchored by a 1020 mb high pres near 29N52W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are noted beneath the high pres with gentle to moderate easterly winds are noted S of 24N. High pres also extends across the eastern Atlantic with light to gentle winds. Seas are to 4 ft across the central and eastern Atlantic. Showers are noted moving across the Canary Islands and Western Sahara.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will result in quiescent conditions through Fri.

Posted 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Areinhart