An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 19W from 23N southward, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 11N to 15N between 19W and 21W.
An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 33W from 18N southward, moving W around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 32W and 34W.
An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 46W from 18N southward, moving W around 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time.
A Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 65W from 15N southward, moving W around 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time.
A Caribbean tropical wave is along 88W from 20N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are noted in the Gulf of Honduras, but most of the convection associated with this wave is in the Eastern Pacific.
The monsoon trough extends from the border of Mauritania and Senegal near 16N16W to 12N25W to 09N33W. A surface trough is analyzed from 09N33W to 07N42W. Scatterometer data shows fresh W to SW winds south of the trough axis and monsoon trough from 05N to 08N between 23W and 38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough and trough from 03N to 18N and E of 42W. No segments of the ITCZ are analyzed at this time.
Gulf Of Mexico
Surface ridging extends across most of the Gulf. To the north, a slow moving front is approaching the northern Gulf coast. A trough is analyzed in the north-central Gulf from 30N85W to 30N90W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed across the northern Gulf from the middle Texas coast to central Florida, N of 26N between 83W and 97W. A trough extends in the eastern Bay of Campeche from 22N90W to 19N92W. Isolated thunderstorms are around the extreme southern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate south to southwesterly winds are noted in the northern Gulf with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas range 2 to 4 ft.
For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf waters over the next several days producing gentle to moderate winds. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will pulse off the Yucatan peninsula into the Bay of Campeche every night through Sat night. A stationary front over the northern Gulf will continue to linger across this area through Fri. Expect moderate to locally fresh southerly winds south of the front in the northern Gulf through Wed along with showers and thunderstorms.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted in the SW Caribbean near the monsoon trough, S of 12N between 76W and 83W. Scattered moderate convection is also along the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua from 13N to 17N between 82W and 86W. Isolated thunderstorms are moving across the adjacent waters of Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba, N of 18N between 73W and 82W. Fresh winds are prevailing in the central Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas range 3 to 6 ft.
For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores high combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to locally strong winds over the south- central Caribbean through the remainder of the week. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. Expect fresh to strong E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and again by Fri night.
The subtropical ridge axis extends west-southwestward from the 1030 mb high near the Azores to Florida. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted off the Florida coast and in the northern Bahamas, N of 25N and W of 27W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds prevail across this area with seas 2 to 4 ft. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, quiescent conditions are noted with the subtropical ridge dominating the basin. Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail east of 45W with gentle to moderate trades west of 45W. Seas range 4 to 7 ft, with an area of 8-10 ft seas in NE to E swell is noted from 16N to 25N and E of 42W.
For the forecast W of 65W, the Bermuda-Azores high will dominate the forecast waters over the next several days. Fresh winds will pulse north of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage, through Thu and increase fresh to strong by Fri. A stationary front will linger along the U.S. East Coast for the rest of the week. This will cause moderate to fresh southerly winds to continue off the NE Florida coast through Thu along with showers and thunderstorms.
Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Areinhart