Tropics Watch

Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2020. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

Posted 1 month, 2 weeks ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven

Tropics Watch Satellite

Special Features

See the latest NWS high seas forecast under awips/wmo headers miahsfat2/fznt02 kNHC for further details on the special features listed below:

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning

A cold front extends across the basin from ft. Myers Florida to 90W to 93.5W, then stationary to 96W. Gale force northwest winds currently occurring offshore Veracruz will last through this evening, diminishing overnight. Seas will range from 10-14 ft.

South-Central Caribbean Gale Warning

Gale force winds are off the coast of Colombia. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force around 20/1200 UTC this morning. Seas will range from 10 to 13 ft in this area.

West Atlantic Gale Warning

A cold front that currently extends from 73W to ft. Pierce Florida will extend from 60W through the Bahamas to eastern Cuba Tuesday evening. Surface low pressure is forecast to develop along the front tue and wed to the east of the northwest Bahamas. Gale force north winds are expected to develop west of the low by Tuesday evening. The gales should occur north of 28N and west of 76W Tuesday evening, spreading slowly eastward on wed. Seas will build to 12-18 ft tue night into wed morning.

Central Atlantic and Northeast Caribbean Large Swell

Large northerly swell will continue to affect the Virgin Islands, Leeward Islands and northeast Caribbean passages through today before subsiding tonight into Tuesday. Large surf, dangerous rip currents and possible coastal flooding will affect the Atlantic- facing shores of these islands through today. See information from your local or national meteorological service for more specific information on beach hazards in your area.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 09W to 16W. The ITCZ continues from 16W to 28W to 37W to 44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-05N between 04W-23W. Isolated moderate convection is from 04S-03N between 23W-35W.

Gulf of Mexico

A gale warning is in effect for the southwest Gulf of Mexico south of 21N and west of 95W. See the section above for details. A cold front extends across the basin from ft. Myers Florida to 90W to 93.5W, then stationary to 96W. Strong north to northeast winds cover the Gulf of Mexico north of the front. Scattered showers are over the southwest portion of the basin, south of 25N and west of 93W. Isolated showers are elsewhere ahead of and along the cold front, including over the Florida straits. Clearing skies are noted north of 27N as surface ridging builds in.

The front over the Gulf of Mexico will continue moving southeast and exit the basin late this afternoon. Fresh to strong north winds will continue through tue in the wake of the front. The gales offshore Veracruz will prevail into tonight. As high pressure builds into the Gulf, winds and seas will diminish tue night, except in the southeast Gulf, where north winds will become strong due to strengthening low pressure east of the northwest Bahamas. As the high moves east, strong southerly winds will develop in the northwest Gulf wed and wed night.

Caribbean Sea

Gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia are forecast to diminish after 20/1200 UTC this morning. Also, large northerly swell currently affecting the northeast Caribbean passages will continue through today and subside tonight. See the special features section above for details.

A stationary front extends across the far northeast portion of the basin from 60W to Puerto Rico near 66W. Isolated showers are noted across portions of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, southern Hispaniola and Jamaica. The air is relatively dry over the eastern half of the basin due to mid-level anticyclonic flow and subsidence. Fresh trades prevail from 10N-18N between 60W-80W, with strong to near gale winds from 10N-16N between 70W-78W.

As the pressure gradient over the Caribbean weakens, gales will end this morning off the coast of Colombia. Long-period north swell will continue to create very large seas and hazardous marine conditions across the tropical North Atlantic and along Atlantic facing shores of the Lesser Antilles today, before gradually subsiding into mid-week. A cold front will enter the northwest Caribbean this afternoon and reach a line from eastern Cuba to the north coast of Honduras by tue evening. Behind the front, expect strong north winds and higher seas.

Atlantic Ocean

Refer to the section above for details on the gale warning over the far west Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 73W to ft. Pierce Florida. Fresh to strong north winds are behind the front. Strong southwest winds are ahead of the front, north of 30N between 61W-73W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 30 nm behind and 45 nm ahead of the front, mainly north of 27N and east of 78W. Lines of scattered moderate showers extend from the northwest Bahamas to the Florida straits, to the east and south of Miami and key largo. A 1027 mb high near 50W extends a surface ridge axis from the high to 60W to 70W, leading to fair weather north of 20N between 40W-68W. A cold front enters the area near 32W and extends to 35W to 42W to 51W, and continues as a stationary front to 65W. Isolated showers are along the front. Another cold front enters the Atlantic from the coast of Morocco near 10W and extends to 18W to the Azores. Isolated showers are seen south of the front over the canary islands. Altimeter passes over the central Atlantic between 20/0000 UTC and 20/0500 UTC show significant wave heights in the 14 to 19 ft range from 16N-31N between 50W-54W.

Large seas east of the Turks and Caicos Islands will gradually subside today from west to east. Large seas of 13-16 ft are expected today within the area bounded by 47W to 63W to 56W to 35W to 35W to 47W. The cold front from 73W to ft. Pierce Florida will reach the northwest Bahamas this afternoon, then move through the Bahamas and into eastern Cuba by tue evening. Low pressure is forecast to develop along this front to the east of the Bahamas tue into wed. The pressure gradient between this low and high pressure building into the southeast U.S. Will be quite tight, causing gale force northerly winds to develop by tue evening north of the Bahamas. Strong to near gale force north winds are also possible along the east coast of Florida and the northwest Bahamas.

Posted 44 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Hagen

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature