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Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system is centered between the Madeira Islands and the Azores. This system has become less organized during the past 24 hours, and environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development as the system moves southwestward during the next day or two. Although subtropical development is now unlikely, this system will continue to produce strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira Islands and the Azores through Wednesday. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.

This will be the last Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued on this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on June 1, 2021, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the off-season. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, low, 10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW.

Posted 1 month, 2 weeks ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven

Tropics Watch Satellite

Special Features

Gale-Force Winds In The Caribbean Sea

Expect gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia, from 10N to 13N between 74W and 78W, from the early morning hours of today until the mid-morning hours of today. Expect the same conditions in the same areas in 24 hours to 30 hours. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 07N17W, and to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W, to 02N30W and 02N37W. An upper level trough is along 19N34W 06N43W. A surface trough is along 38W/40W from 08N southward. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely scattered moderate to strong are to the south and southeast of the line that extends from the coast of The Western Sahara near 25N, to 24N20W 20N30W 08N45W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

Gulf Of Mexico

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1029 mb high pressure center that is near 31N79W, into the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico, through the north central Gulf of Mexico, to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front is moving through Texas, through east Texas into south central Texas. Broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds are within 200 nm to the east of the coasts of Texas and Mexico.

A surface trough extends from the north central Yucatan Peninsula, southwestward, into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate are within 210 nm to the east and southeast of the surface trough.

High pressure in the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico will shift eastward into the western Atlantic Ocean through Friday. A surface trough will form off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Wednesday night, supporting brief pulses of fresh to strong winds. A cold front will move into the northern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The front will become stationary into Saturday night. The western part of the front will begin to move northward as a warm front from late Saturday night through Sunday. The rest of the front will dissipate as Atlantic Ocean high pressure builds westward across the area through Sunday night.

Caribbean Sea

The monsoon trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, across Panama, beyond 08N83W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Water vapor satellite imagery and the GFS model for 250 mb show an upper level ridge that extends from NE Venezuela to Nicaragua. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 13N southward from 70W westward.

Broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, span the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow.

High pressure, shifting east-southeastward in the western Atlantic Ocean, is supporting fresh to strong winds and building seas in the southeast and south central Caribbean Sea. The winds will be pulsing to gale-force off the coast of Colombia, mainly at night, through Wednesday night. Fresh to strong northeast winds also are expected in the lee of eastern Cuba through Wednesday night. The winds and the seas will diminish from Thursday through Saturday, as the high pressure weakens, although strong winds will persist off the coast of Colombia that could reach near gale-force on Thursday night.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1029 mb high pressure center that is near 31N79W, into the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico, through the north central Gulf of Mexico, to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front passes through 32N50W, to 27N60W, to the Turks and Caicos Islands. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong are from 24N northward from 70W eastward.

A surface ridge extends from a 1029 mb high pressure center that is near 31N79W, to 30N62W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from the cold front eastward. A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 28N34W.

The current 24N65W-to-the Turks and Caicos Islands cold front will dissipate on Wednesday night. A second cold front will move southward into the Atlantic Ocean between northeastern Florida and Bermuda by Wednesday night. The main part of this front will move to the northeast of the area on Thursday, leaving a trailing stationary segment to dissipate along 27N by Thursday evening. This front will be followed by a third cold front, that will move southward across the waters between Bermuda and NE Florida late on Friday. The third cold front will reach from 31N60W to 27N70W and to West Palm Beach in Florida on Saturday night, then begin to weaken as it reaches the far southern waters late on Sunday. High pressure will build into the area in the wake of this front.

Posted 1 year ago by NHC Forecaster Mt/Ec

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature