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For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for subtropical development over the northwest Atlantic.

Northwestern Atlantic: A non-tropical low pressure system centered over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean about 300 miles north of Bermuda is producing storm-force winds. Although the cyclone is producing some thunderstorm activity near the center, it is embedded in a cold air mass with nearby frontal boundaries. The low is expected to move northeastward today and northward tonight, bringing the system over much colder waters and across Atlantic Canada by early Tuesday. Therefore, it is unlikely that the low will transition to a subtropical or tropical cyclone. Nevertheless, the system is expected to remain a strong non-tropical low during the next day or so, and additional information, including storm-force wind warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on May 15, 2023, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the off-season. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, low, near 0 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Posted 3 weeks ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Cangialosi

Special Features

Caribbean Sea GALE WARNING:

The pressure gradient between the western Atlantic Ocean high and lower pressure over Central and South America will continue to support pulsing nighttime gale-force winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea, near the coast of Colombia through late week. Seas will range from 9 to 11 ft. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore Waters Forecasts, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details.

Atlantic Ocean GALE WARNING:

A strengthening low pressure centered NW of Bermuda is moving NE away from the region. A trailing cold front extends S from the low to 31N68W and continues to the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm E and SE of this front. Gale force winds are now confined to areas N of 31N, but near gale- force SW winds are noted ahead of the cold front, N of 28N and W of 56W. Seas in this region of strong winds are 9 to 11 ft. Behind the front and N of 28N, strong NW winds are ongoing, with similar sea heights. Extending W to around 75W. As the low pressure continues to move away from the area and the cold front weakens, winds and seas will gradually diminish tonight. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more information.

Atlantic Ocean SIGNIFICANT SEAS:

A broad area of 12 to 15 ft seas are ongoing N of 20N between 35W and 55W, due to NW swell of 12 to 15 seconds. These seas will gradually decay through Tue night, with seas by late Tue falling below 12 ft. Fresh to strong trades in this area of higher seas will also decrease to moderate to fresh by late Tue. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more information.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N14W, then continues to 03N19W. The ITCZ extends from 03N19W to 00N23W to 00N31W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 08N and E of 31W.

Gulf Of Mexico

Weak high pressure centered over the SE U.S. Is moving NE away from the Gulf of Mexico this evening. A surface trough has developed over the eastern Gulf of Mexico from 29N86W to 24N85W. Winds are generally gentle to moderate out of the E and SE, although fresh SE return flow is ongoing in the NW basin. Seas are 2 to 4 ft, with localized seas of up to 5 ft in the Florida Straits, and 4 to 6 ft offshore the Texas coast.

For the forecast, high pressure ridging over the northern Gulf of Mexico will move eastward over the next few days. Southerly return flow will increase to fresh to locally strong tonight into early Tue over the western Gulf, with fresh winds spreading to the remainder of the Gulf Tue. Strong winds will also develop off NW Cuba and the NW Yucatan Tue night into early Wed. A cold front will enter the western Gulf on Wed with strong N winds likely behind it over the far west-central Gulf, and quickly diminishing as the front reaches the central Gulf early Thu, before stalling and weakening. A stronger cold front will enter the Gulf Thu evening, reach from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz Fri morning, and exit the basin to the southeast by early Sat. Gale force NW to N winds are possible behind the front over the SW Gulf Fri into Fri night.

Caribbean Sea

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the GALE WARNING that is in effect for the coastal waters of Colombia.

A weak surface trough extends from southern Cuba to the SW Caribbean, but relatively dry are and subsidence is precluding significant convection near the trough or elsewhere in the basin. Mainly fresh trades dominate most of the basin, although the south-central basin is experiencing strong NE to E winds, and trades are gentle to moderate in the NW Caribbean. Seas are 8 to 11 ft in the south-central and SW basin in association with the zone of strong winds, otherwise seas are 2 to 4 ft in the NW Caribbean and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area will maintain a strong pressure gradient across the central Caribbean Sea through the week. Strong easterly winds will continue over the south-central Caribbean, pulsing to gale force off Colombia nightly through late this week. Seas will build to near 13 ft during the strongest winds. Winds will increase in the Windward Passage, lee of Cuba and Gulf of Honduras late Tue through late this week, pulsing to strong at night. Strong easterly winds will also pulse off southern Hispaniola and occasionally in the eastern Caribbean through the forecast period. Looking ahead, a cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel Fri night, with fresh to strong N winds coming into the NW Caribbean behind the front.

Atlantic Ocean

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the the gale warning ending SW of Bermuda and the hazardous seas occurring SE of Bermuda.

The stationary front that had been SE of Bermuda has dissipated today, leaving high pressure centered near the Azores the dominant weather feature for most of the basin. There is however a cold front extending from 31N68W through the central Bahamas. The winds N of 28N in association with this front, as well as related convection, are described in the Special Features section above. S of 28N, moderate to fresh NW to N winds are present behind the front, with generally gentle to moderate S winds ahead of it to about 55W. E of 55W, fresh to strong trades dominate, with seas of 10 to 15 ft. No significant convection is occurring in the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will sweep across the Atlantic over the next couple of days, reaching from near 27N55W to the SE Bahamas Wed morning. Strong wind speeds will continue north of 28N on both sides of the front through Tue night. Large swell will build in Wed behind the front and spread southward across the basin through late week. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected through the Bahamas, Straits of Florida and Windward Passage late Tue through Thu night. Looking ahead a cold front will move east of Florida Fri night with strong winds on both sides of the front.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik