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Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system is centered between the Madeira Islands and the Azores. This system has become less organized during the past 24 hours, and environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development as the system moves southwestward during the next day or two. Although subtropical development is now unlikely, this system will continue to produce strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira Islands and the Azores through Wednesday. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.

This will be the last Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued on this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on June 1, 2021, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the off-season. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, low, 10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW.

Posted 5 months ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven

Tropics Watch Satellite

Special Features

Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressures over W Africa will support fresh to strong N to NE winds north of 20N and within about 150 nm of the coast of W Africa off Agadir, Morocco. Meteo-France has continued a Gale Warning for Agadir through 14/00Z at least. The forecast calls for N winds of strong to near gale, locally gale close to the coast with rough to very rough seas. Refer to the High Seas Forecast at their website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends off of the coast of Senegal near 16N17W to 14N19W. The ITCZ extends from 00N36W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. A surface trough extends from 08N21W to 01S30W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07S to 07N between 22W to 48W.

Gulf Of Mexico

At 2100 UTC, a cold front extended from the SE Louisiana coast near 29N90W to 26N94W to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W. A pre- frontal trough is present from 30N86W to 29N88W. Numerous strong convection is occurring in the SW Gulf of Mexico S of 25N between 95W to 98W. Frequent lightning and gusty winds can be expected with these storms. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the north-central Gulf, N of 25N between 85W to 94W. Winds across most of the Gulf ahead of the front are SE light to moderate, except for fresh SE winds in the SW Gulf. Winds north of the cold front are NE gentle to moderate. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the central and W Gulf, and only 2 to 3 ft in the E Gulf. Smoke and haze from agricultural and wild fires in Mexico and Central America are reducing visibilities slightly over the SW Gulf of Mexico, though this may mix out with the shower and thunderstorm activity in the area.

The cold front will reach from near Tampa Bay to south of Tampico, Mexico by early Thu, and from near Fort Myers, Florida to 25N94W to Veracruz, Mexico by early Fri. The front will stall from the Straits of Florida to the west-central Gulf by early Sat before lifting north while dissipating into Sun. Moderate to fresh easterly flow will persist into early next week.

Caribbean Sea

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Panama near 09N82W to the coast of Colombia near 09N76W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of 11N between 80W to 84W. Meanwhile, diurnally driven convection over Cuba is pushing southward toward adjacent waters. The pressure gradient from a high pressure ridge along 28N to a low over Colombia is contributing to strong NE to E trades over the S central Caribbean and fresh to moderate to fresh E trades elsewhere. There is also moderate to fresh winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 8 to 10 ft over S central Caribbean and 4 to 8 ft elsewhere.

High pressure north of the region will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean into Sat. Winds and seas will diminish slightly thereafter into early next week as the high pressure shifts eastward and weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

See the Special Features section for more information on a Gale Warning near Agadir.

Scattered thunderstorms are noted off the Florida coast, N of 26N and W of 78W. High pressure extends across the rest of the area of the Atlantic with quiescent conditions. Light to gentle winds are noted with seas 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast tonight, reach from near Bermuda to South Florida by early Fri, and from 31N65W to the Straits of Florida by early Sat. The front will stall north of Hispaniola into Sun then dissipate as it lifts northward early next week.

For the forecast east of 55W, little change to winds or seas are expected through Fri night. Beginning Sat morning, a cold front will move across the waters north of 27N and reach 52W by Sun night. Winds on both sides of the front will be fresh to strong and seas reaching 8 ft. Elsewhere a reduced pressure gradient will weaken the trades across the Atlantic on Sat and Sun.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Areinhart/Landsea

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature