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Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Beta, located over the western Gulf of Mexico, on Hurricane Teddy, located a couple of hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda. The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on the remnants of Wilfred, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is producing a small area of showers and thunderstorms, not far to the southeast of its center of circulation. The system is meandering over marginally warm waters and is expected to begin moving eastward later today. Further development is possible and the system could become a tropical or subtropical cyclone today or tomorrow. For more information about marine hazards associated with this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, medium, 60 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and are available on the web at www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2

Posted 1 hour, 33 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropics Watch Satellite

Special Features

Tropical Storm Beta is centered near 27.6N 94.5W at 21/0300 UTC or 105 nm S of Galveston Texas moving WNW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 300 nm of the center in the eastern semicircle. Scattered light to isolated moderate showers are within 180 nm of the center in the western semicircle. Peak seas are currently 23 ft. The WNW motion will continue today. A decrease in forward speed and a sharp turn to the north and northeast is expected tonight and Tue. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will likely move inland along the coast of central Texas tonight, and remain close to the coast of southeastern Texas on Tuesday. Little change in strength is expected prior to landfall. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

Hurricane Teddy is centered near 29.4N 63.6W at 21/0300 UTC or 185 nm SSE of Bermuda moving NNW at 5 kt. Minimum central pressure is 963 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Numerous moderate with isolated strong convection extends outward from the center 180 nm in the east semicircle, 90 nm SW quad and 150 nm NW quad. On the forecast track, the center of Teddy will pass east of Bermuda later this morning. Teddy is forecast to be approaching Nova Scotia late Tue or Wed. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and the Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details.

Tropical Depression Wilfred has degenerated into a trough. The remnants of Wilfred are located near 15.9N 47.4W at 21/0300 UTC with max winds near 30 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm of the center in the east semicircle and 90 nm west semicircle. Please read the final NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is located a few hundred nm south of the Azores and continues to produce disorganized shower activity. This system is drifting S and is expected to begin moving eastward on Monday. The cyclone has a medium chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. For more information about marine hazards associated with this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.

WEST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: As of 21/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from 31N70W to 27N76W to Ft. Lauderdale Florida. A recent ASCAT pass from Sunday evening shows NE winds of 30-35 kt north of 27.5N between 74W and the coasts of Florida and Georgia. Seas are 17 to 23 feet in this area. The gales south of 31N are forecast to end later this morning by 1200 UTC. However, winds to 30 kt and very rough seas will persist into tonight. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Tropical Waves

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends from 21N24W to 02N27W. The wave is moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 14N-21N between 21W-25W. This convection is associated with a 1012 mb low along the monsoon trough near 17N22W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W to a 1012 mb low in the Cabo Verde Islands near 17N22W to 13N29W to 13N33W. The ITCZ is from 13N33W to 15N41W. Isolated moderate convection is within 240 nm either side of the ITCZ between 36W-41W.

Gulf Of Mexico

Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Beta in the NW Gulf of Mexico.

A stationary front extends from Naples Florida to 28N91W. Scattered moderate convection is along the front. Near gale E winds are noted north of the front over the NE Gulf in the latest ASCAT data. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the front over the SE Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh N winds are over the SW Gulf, west of 93W and south of 24N. Isolated moderate convection is seen over portions of the Bay of Campeche.

The aforementioned front will continue to move slowly S across the eastern half of the Gulf into later today. Strong NE to E winds and large seas will continue today north of the front.

Caribbean Sea

Isolated showers and tstorms are seen in the NW Caribbean near the S coast of Cuba, and the far southern Caribbean. Isolated showers and tstorms are also possible today over the Leeward Islands due to the presence of a moisture tail emanating from Teddy, which shows up nicely in TPW imagery. Somewhat drier air is seen over the central Caribbean, where upper-level anticyclonic flow prevails. A recent ASCAT pass shows gentle winds across the basin, with moderate winds in the southern Caribbean near the coast of South America.

For the forecast, large northerly swell from Hurricane Teddy will continue to impact the Atlantic passages of the NE Caribbean through today between the Mona Passage and the Leeward Islands. Renewed northerly swell will likely reach these same passages for the latter half of the week. Mariners are advised to check local marine forecasts for more information.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Teddy and the Gale Warning in effect for the west Atlantic.

Scattered moderate convection is occurring near the west Atlantic cold front from 25N-29N between 73W and Florida. A pre-frontal trough extends from 28N70W to 26N76W with scattered showers and tstorms. Light to gentle winds are noted south of 26N and west of 74W across the Old Bahama Channel, as well as the waters north of Hispaniola. To the east, a 1018 mb high is near 28N38W.

Hurricane Teddy will move to near 35N63W this evening, and become extratropical near 41N64W Tue evening. The cold front from 31N70W to Ft. Lauderdale Florida will lead to a continuation of Gale conditions N of 28N through this morning. Long period swell generated by both Hurricane Teddy and this cold front will impact the waters across the western Atlantic through mid week.

Posted 1 hour, 28 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Hagen

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature