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First 2026 hurricane season outlook predicts least active Atlantic since 2015
First 2026 hurricane season outlook predicts least active Atlantic since 2015
New ‘Ready, Set Backpack’ helps autistic children cope during hurricane emergencies
New ‘Ready, Set Backpack’ helps autistic children cope during hurricane emergencies
Local 10 Hurricane Specialist and Storm Surge Expert Michael Lowry, wife welcome 3rd child
Local 10 Hurricane Specialist and Storm Surge Expert Michael Lowry, wife welcome 3rd child
Updates

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2026. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

Posted 5 months ago by NHC Forecaster Bucci

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from 03N22W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 10W and 50W.

Gulf Of America

A high pressure ridge extends southwestward from a 1016 mb high center over the NE Gulf to near Tampico, Mexico. Light winds and seas of 1-2 ft are in the vicinity of the high center. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are found west of the Yucatan peninsula. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-5 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will slowly weaken today. A weak pressure gradient across the basin will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds across most of the basin today. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas will follow a cold front moving across the northern Gulf tonight through the early part of the week. The front will stall from the Florida Straits to south Texas by late Mon then dissipate into mid week.

Caribbean Sea

Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the Caribbean basin. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range over the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, seas of 2-4 ft prevail.

For the forecast, a weaker than usual pressure gradient will support mainly gentle to moderate winds through the forecast period. Fresh NE winds may develop early next week across the Windward Passage associated with a late- season cold front moving into Cuba.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough extends from 30N73W to the central Bahamas. A surface trough is just off the coast of western Africa. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion waters, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 33N47W. Light to gentle winds are over the northern waters in the vicinity of the high. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds prevail. Seas of 7-9 ft are found S of 16N as well as east of 30W. Seas of 4-7 ft generally prevail elsewhere, except 3-4 ft over the far NW portion of the discussion waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough will dissipate today. High pressure will build into the area from the east in the wake of the trough. A cold front is forecast to move off the coast of northeast Florida Sun night. Expect fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas in the wake of the front as it reaches from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by late Mon, from 31N60W to central Cuba by late Tue, before stalling and dissipating along roughly 22N through mid week.

Posted about 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster AL