For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to near 07N20W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N20W to 02N35W to 01N48W. Scattered moderate convection is observed on satellite imagery from 02N to 07N and east of 37W.
Gulf Of Mexico
A cold front extends from the coast of Mississippi to 21N93W to near Coatzacoalcos, Mexico in the southern Bay of Campeche. A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms is occurring north of 26N and east of 86W. Tranquil weather conditions prevail in the rest of the Gulf. Fresh to locally strong westerly winds are occurring in the northern Gulf waters, especially north of 27N. An elevated site 65 nm east of the mouth of the Mississippi River is reporting winds of 30 knots. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin.
For the forecast, the aforementioned front will weaken as it moves through the NE Gulf today. Fresh to strong winds behind the front will diminish today in the NE Gulf waters. High pressure will build in the wake of the front and prevail through midweek, when a cold front moves into the NW Gulf by midweek. Winds will increase to strong speeds behind the front, spreading across the W Gulf and into the SW Gulf and northern Gulf waters on Wed through Thu.
A few showers are noted in the Gulf of Honduras and in the SW Caribbean Sea, while patches of low-level moisture traverse the basin and are not producing any deep convection. A 1022 mb high pressure system between Bermuda and the SE United States is supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds across the central and eastern Caribbean, primarily south of 18N and north of 11N. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are prevalent in the remainder of the basin.
For the forecast, high pressure will persist north of the area through most of the upcoming week sustaining moderate to fresh easterly breezes across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. Winds may pulse to strong speeds at night south of Hispaniola and the Windward Passage Tue through Thu. Moderate to locally fresh winds in the NW Caribbean starting Tue through the remainder of the forecast period.
A cold front extends from 28N55W to 25N64W, becoming a stationary front to the NW Bahamas. Showers and thunderstorms are occurring within 120 nm ahead of the frontal boundary, especially north of 24N. Fresh to strong SW winds are also found ahead of the front, north of 26N and west of 35W. Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds are noted behind the frontal boundary, especially east of 70W. Seas in these waters are 8-13 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 31N54W.
Farther south, scattered moderate convection is seen south of 12N and west of 46W. The pressure gradient between a strong ridge near the Azores and lower pressures in the deep tropics support moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds south of 20N and west of 35W. The strongest winds are found near 08N39W. Seas in the waters described are 6-9 ft. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas of 4-7 ft are evident in the eastern Atlantic, primarily east of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker breezes and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front will continue to weaken and dissipate by Mon. Strong winds prevailing north of 29N and W of the front will diminish below strong force by this afternoon. Seas will subside today and Mon. Southerly winds are increasing off NE Florida ahead of another cold front expected to move off the coast tonight. Winds will reach fresh to strong speeds N of 29N and W of 77W before diminishing on Mon morning.
Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado