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Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2022. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

Posted 1 month, 3 weeks ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven

Tropics Watch Satellite

Special Features

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning

The surface pressure gradient between W Atlantic Ocean high pressure and lower pressure over Colombia will support pulsing winds to gale force offshore Colombia through tonight. Sea heights will continue to range from 8 to 11 ft. As the ridge shifts eastward over the weekend, the pressure gradient will weaken, allowing for gales to end Sun, although strong winds will continue in the south-central basin through the middle of next week.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends to Liberia adjacent waters near 06N12W where the ITCZ continues to 05N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01N49W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 09N between 30W and 40W.

Gulf Of Mexico

High pressure building south through the western Gulf in the wake of a cold front that stretches from near Sarasota, Florida, into the eastern Bay of Campeche is leading to a broad area of strong winds and seas of 10 to 14 ft. Gales ended overnight, and conditions will continue to improve today as the front moves SE and out of the area by tonight.

Scattered moderate convection is noted in the SE Gulf ahead of the previously stationary front. Gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are occurring over the SE Gulf.

For the forecast, the next cold front, along with a possible associated low pressure, is forecast to emerge off the Texas coast by Mon night. This system may bring higher winds and seas to portions of the Gulf into the middle of next week as it crosses the basin.

Caribbean Sea

Please see the Special Features section above for details on gales ongoing off the coast of Colombia.

Elsewhere across the basin, dry mainly moderate to fresh ENE trades is leading to convection-free conditions. Seas are 5 to 7 ft, except 2 to 4 ft in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, tight pressure gradient between high pressure in the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will support strong to gale conditions offshore Colombia through tonight, with fresh to strong winds elsewhere in the south-central Caribbean into early next week. Generally moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. A weak cold front will enter the far NW Caribbean tonight, reach from Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sun, then dissipate by Mon.

Atlantic Ocean

Early this morning, a cold front extends from near 31N73W to near Fort Pierce, Florida. Strong N winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are occurring behind this front, with scattered showers and thunderstorms along is, as well as along a pre-frontal trough that stretches from N of the Bahamas to near Miami, Florida. Ahead of the front in the SW Atlantic, generally moderate to fresh SE winds prevail, except some locally strong winds are noted just off the N coast of Hispaniola. Seas in this area are 4 to 6 ft.

Farther E a broad area of generally N swell is decaying, but it still leading to seas of 8 to 11 ft N of 20N and E of 50W. A small surface trough along 50W from 20N to 25N is producing scattered moderate convection. A 1011 mb area of low pressure centered near 30N25W has a surface trough extending from it southwestward to 20N30N. No significant weather is associated with these features. To the S of 20N across the Tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh trades prevail with seas of 6 to 8 ft.

For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front will move slowly SE through early next week, reaching from E of Bermuda through the Turks and Caicos Islands by Mon night. Behind the front, strong N winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft can be expected through tonight, before the front weakens and conditions improve. The next cold front is forecast to move offshore the SE U.S. Coast late Tue.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature