HURRICANE

Special Features

Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 18.5N 62.9W at 03/0900 UTC or 20 nm NNE of Anguilla, moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are reaching to around 20 ft. Satellite imagery shows that Philippe remains a sheared system under moderate to strong westerly shear, with the low-level center of Philippe partially exposed near the northwest edge of a large area of numerous strong convection that covers the area from 13N to 19N between 58W-64W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 19N to 22N between 63W-65W. Philippe is forecast to maintain its present motion today, then a turn toward the north-northwest is forecast by tonight, followed by a northward motion on Wed. On the current forecast track, the center of Philippe is expected to move north of the Leeward Islands today. However, the strongest winds and heaviest rains will likely occur in the islands to the south of the center. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or two, but Philippe could begin to strengthen after midweek. Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Waves

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 20W from 03N to 18N, moving westward at 10 kt. Increasing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 180 nm west of the wave from 06N to 10N, and within 120 nm east of the wave from 06N to 09N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 49W from 02N to 18N, moving westward 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection has recently formed within 180 nm west of the wave from 14N to 18N.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and extends southward to 07N19W and westward to 07N27N and southwestward to near 04N35W. Increasing numerous moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm of the trough between 23W-28W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between 30W-33W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A stationary frontal boundary stretches from South Florida to 26N86W and to 26N90W, where it transitions to a trough that continues west to a 1011 mb low inland south Texas near 28N98W. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are concentrated over the western Gulf within 120 nm either side of the trough between 90W-94W. Isolated showers are elsewhere near the trough and south of the stationary frontal boundary. A trough extends from the southeast part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, to the northwest part of Guatemala and to the north-central Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 60 nm either side of the trough from 17N-19N.

Moderate seas are from 24N to 29N between 82W-94W. Fresh to strong northeast winds, as noted in an overnight ASCAT data pass, are north of the trough and west of 90W. Light seas along with moderate or lighter winds are elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary frontal boundary will dissipate by late this afternoon and the trough is expected to do as well. Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds will expand southward from the northern waters to the central part of the Gulf through tonight before winds start to diminish. Light to gentle winds are forecast elsewhere through Fri night. On Sat, a cold front is anticipated to reach the NW Gulf and cause increasing winds and building seas in the western portion of the basin.

Caribbean Sea

Please refer to the Special Features section for details about Tropical Storm Philippe.

Numerous strong squalls and thunderstorms associated with Tropical Storm Philippe have crossed the majority of the Lesser Antilles and are now over the far eastern Caribbean Sea north of 13N and east of about 65W. This activity is accompanied by frequent lightning, very heavy rain and strong wind gusts. Moderate winds have been within 300 nm of Tropical Storm Philippe in the NW quadrant. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas are elsewhere in the basin per overnight ASCAT data passes and altimeter data passes.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are over the far southwestern part of the basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Philippe is near 18.5N 62.9W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Philippe will maintain intensity as it moves to near 19.2N 63.4W this afternoon, to near 20.6N 64.0W late tonight, to near 22.1N 64.4W Wed afternoon, to near 23.9N 64.7W late Wed night and to near 26.0N 64.6W Thu afternoon, and continue well north of the area later on Thu into Fri. Rough seas across the forecast zones east of the Leeward Islands generated by Philippe will start to subside on Wed. Light to gentle trades will be over the basin through the next few days, except for moderate to fresh southeast winds developing in the southeastern Caribbean tonight into Thu.

Atlantic Ocean

Please refer to the Special Features section for details about Tropical Storm Philippe.

A stationary frontal boundary is analyzed from near 31N60W to 26N71W and to South Florida. The combination of this boundary with a broad mid to upper-level trough that is shifting eastward over the western Atlantic has lead to plenty of instability south of the boundary. This is reflected by the presence of increasing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over most of the central Bahamas, while isolated showers and thunderstorms are over some sections of the southeastern Bahamas. The activity that is over the central Bahamas reaches westward to near 80W.

Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is north of 25N between 56W-62W and north of 28N between 40W-56W. This activity is sliding eastward.

Farther east, a trough is extends from near 31N26W to 27N28W and to 22N31W. No deep convection is occurring with this feature. 24N32W.

Otherwise, moderate to fresh easterly winds along with moderate seas are over the remainder of the Atlantic domain outside Tropical Storm Philippe.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Philippe is near 18.5N 62.9W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Philippe will maintain intensity as it moves to near 19.2N 63.4W this afternoon, to near 20.6N 64.0W late tonight, to near 22.1N 64.4W Wed afternoon, to near 23.9N 64.7W late Wed night and to near 26.0N 64.6W Thu afternoon. Philippe is forecast to strengthen a little as it begins to track northeastward to near 28.3N 64.1W late Thu night, to north of the area near 32.8N 62.3W late Fri night and continue to accelerate northeastward well away from the area Sat and Sat night. Otherwise, a stationary front extends from near 31N60W southwestward to 26N71W, to across the NW Bahamas and to South Florida. N of 29N, the weak cold front will continue progressing eastward until moving east of the forecast waters on Wed. S of 29N, the frontal boundary will dissipate this afternoon, but fresh to strong northeast winds will continue north of the Bahamas through Wed before diminishing.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Aguirre