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Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical low pressure system producing gale-force winds is located a few hundred miles south of Halifax, Nova Scotia. The low should continue moving eastward at about 15 mph through Friday, away from shore. The low is then expected to turn southeastward on Saturday toward slightly warmer waters, and it could acquire some subtropical characteristics over the weekend or early next week while over the central Atlantic. For more information on this system, including gale warnings, see products issued by your local National Weather Service office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, low, 30 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Posted 1 hour, 53 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Hagen/Latto

Tropics Watch Satellite

Special Features

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Satellite derived wind data provided observations of minimal gale force winds over the NW Gulf behind a strong cold front that currently extends from SE Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico. A band of showers and thunderstorms, some strong, is also associated with the front. Strong to gale force W-NW winds and building seas are expected across the Gulf waters mainly N of 26N and behind the front through Fri. Fresh to strong southerly winds will continue ahead of the front today. Winds and seas are expected to peak tonight. At this time, W to NW winds of 30-35 kt and seas in the 10-15 ft range are expected. These dangerous marine conditions will begin to gradually diminish from W to E late Fri into Sat. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

Tropical Waves

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 20N southward moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is near the southern end of the wave axis from 03N to 11N between 30W and 35W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough exits the Senegal coast near 14N17W and continues to 10N34W. The ITCZ then extends from 10N34W to 08N55W N of Suriname. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 04N-09N between 10W-30W, and from 11N-15N between 20W-25W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A strong cold front extending from SE Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico will continue to move quickly across the Gulf, accompanied by a band of showers and thunderstorms, gale force winds and building seas. Please see the Special Features section for more details. A large area of low pressure shifting eastward across the eastern of United States will produce a strong pressure gradient over the northern Gulf. This will support the strong to gale force winds across the northern Gulf waters through Fri.

A stationary front is over Florida and the NE Gulf generating scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. This front will lift northward into the the western Atlantic by this evening.

Caribbean Sea

Recent scatterometer data show gentle to moderate winds across most of the basin. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the Gulf of Honduras, and light and variable winds over the SW Caribbean particularly S of 11N. Southerly winds prevail across the NW part of the basin ahead of the cold front currently moving across the Gulf of Mexico. Seas are generally 3-6 ft, except in the lee of Cuba and near the Atlantic coast of Nicaragua where seas of 1-3 ft are observed. Multilayered clouds, with possible showers are moving NE across the SE Caribbean ahead of a mid to upper level trough that extends from the Mona Passage to the SW Caribbean. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is near 12N80W, just ahead of a surface trough analyzed near 80W from 15N southward. Elsewhere, shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will produce isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, a weak ridge over the northern Caribbean Sea will support mainly gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds will prevail over the NW Caribbean through tonight ahead of a cold front forecast to reach western Cuba and the NW Caribbean. The front will extend from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by midday Fri, from central Cuba to NE Honduras on Fri night, then stall from eastern Cuba to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua over the weekend while dissipating.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from 31N60W to 26N73W where it becomes stationary to South Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 8-10 ft are ahead and behind the front mainly N of 28N. An area of multilayered clouds, with possible showers is E of the Leeward Islands and mainly covers the area from 15N-20N between 50W-60W. This cloudiness is ahead of a mid to upper level trough previously mentioned. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a 2021 mb high pressure located W of the Madeira Islands near 32WN28W. This system extends a ridge across the Greater Antilles. Light and variable winds are along the ridge axis while a belt of gentle to moderate trades is along the southern periphery of the ridge.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Ash cloud is slowly drifting SW. High volcanic ash concentration remains in the vicinity of the volcano. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo- France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned cold front will shift eastward while dissipating. The next cold front from will sweep across the region Thu night through Fri night, then stall from 31N68W to eastern Cuba over the weekend. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected on either side of this front.

Posted 1 hour, 48 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Gr

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature