A disturbance we first detailed in this newsletter a week ago is now being tagged by the National Hurricane for low development odds later this week in the southern reaches of the Gulf before moving inland over eastern Mexico late Saturday into Sunday.
The system poses no direct threat to the U.S. and, as we’ve discussed in previous newsletters this week, significant development is unlikely.
Cristina crossing Central America
Forecast models indicated a modest development signal over the Gulf late last week but, as we covered in Monday’s newsletter, our major models mostly backed off development chances last weekend, indicating a westward shift closer to Mexico where drier air and stronger shear would limit organization.
The disturbance itself can be traced to the spin associated Tropical Storm Cristina in the eastern Pacific that’ll be drifting slowly inland over Central America on Wednesday into Thursday, with its remnant spin crossing into the southern Gulf and Bay of Campeche by Friday.
It’s worth mentioning that in the off-chance a named storm develops over the southern Gulf, Cristina would have to maintain its designation as a tropical storm or tropical depression clear across Central America to keep its name in the Gulf, an extremely unlikely scenario given the mountainous terrain it’ll be crossing, which should sufficiently disrupt its circulation.
A named storm that develops from Cristina’s remnant spin would be christened Arthur, the first named storm of the 2026 Atlantic basin hurricane season.
We’ve never had a storm move from the eastern Pacific into the Atlantic basin and keep its name, though it’s happened three times from Atlantic to Pacific (Otto 2016, Bonnie 2022, and Julia 2022) since the rule change was implemented in 2000.
Models mostly mum on development
While forecast models do show a very slight window for development Friday and Saturday in the Bay of Campeche, the odds are very low for anything more organized than a tropical depression or low-end tropical storm.
It’s also worth noting that Google’s DeepMind machine learned-based model – the star performer for tropical forecasts and genesis predictions last hurricane season – is especially bearish on development with this one.
That said, the Bay of Campeche is notorious for spinning up quick systems due to its unique curvature (something we’ve written about often in past years), and disturbances have a tendency to overperform in this part of the world, something NHC forecasters know well and take into consideration.
Regardless of development, the upshot is soupy tropical air spreading over parts of eastern Mexico and South Texas, where it could enhance heavy rainfall – primarily over northeastern Mexico directly – for late weekend into early next week.
The surge of tropical air into the Deep South may also aggravate the heavy rainfall threat across parts of North Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas to start next week.
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