Talking Tropics

1 hour ago

New research reveals how hurricane hunters improve forecasts before and after landfall

18 hours ago

Clues August will open with a whisper across the Atlantic

August is typically the month the Atlantic hurricane season comes alive, when bigtime hurricanes are no longer the exception and when we start paying closer attention to each tropical wave plodding westward across the Atlantic from Africa.

1 day ago

Pacific sizzles as the Atlantic simmers

Genevieve rapidly strengthened 75 mph in just 24 hours over the eastern Pacific over the weekend to top the scales as a Category 5 hurricane by the pre-dawn hours Monday. The frequency of such explosive strengthening is rare in the eastern Pacific – fewer than 1% of all “fixes” (6-hourly position and intensity estimates) made since 1970.

2 days ago

How El Niño transforms the typical pattern of Atlantic hurricane activity

We’ve written a lot about El Niño – the abnormal warming of waters across the eastern Pacific around the equator – in this newsletter this year. With it shaping up to be one of the strongest El Niños on record, we want to cover all angles of where we could see (and are already seeing) its fingerprints this hurricane season.

Bertha washes out over eastern Texas, Atlantic basin takes a hiatus next week

Tropical Storm Bertha’s four-day stint as a disorganized and largely unmemorable tropical cyclone came to an end late Thursday, as its circulation unraveled over eastern Texas.

Bertha breezes through southern Louisiana, expected to reach the upper Texas coast later today

The low-topped cloud swirl of Tropical Storm Bertha officially crossed the southeastern Louisiana coastline about 50 miles east of New Orleans in neighboring St. Bernard Parish Wednesday afternoon around 2 PM local time with maximum winds of 45 mph.

Bertha skims across the northern Gulf Coast with little fanfare

Bertha remained a weak, disorganized and lopsided tropical storm Wednesday morning, with its largely innocuous center swirl — absent any organized thunderstorms – sliding westward toward southeastern Louisiana.

Bertha forms, expected to remain weak and lopsided as it skirts the northern Gulf Coast

NOAA Hurricane Hunters investigating Tropical Depression Two Monday evening, centered about 120 miles south of Panama City Beach, Florida, in the northeastern Gulf, found winds of 40 mph – the threshold for tropical storm strength – supporting its upgrade to Tropical Storm Bertha, the second named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.

Tropical depression expected to become Bertha today, locally heavy rains to scrape the northern Gulf Coast

Tropical Depression Two, which formed Sunday morning over the northeastern Gulf about 150 miles west of Tampa, is expected to become Tropical Storm Bertha, the second named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, later today.

Tropical Depression 2 forms in northern Gulf, threatens Florida Panhandle

The National Hurricane Center has issued advisories for Tropical Depression Two in the northern Gulf.

Gulf system to bring heavy rains to Florida’s west coast and Big Bend starting this weekend

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor an elongated corridor of low pressure stretching down the southeast U.S. coast and into the northeastern Gulf – with its south side tucked away in the elbow of Florida’s Big Bend – for possible tropical development starting this weekend into early next week.

National Hurricane Center flagging 2 areas in the Atlantic, development unlikely with either

The National Hurricane Center added two areas to watch to its tropical outlook map on Wednesday — one that we discussed in Wednesday morning’s newsletter over the northeastern Gulf to off the southeast U.S. — and another Wednesday afternoon in the far eastern Atlantic only a few hundred miles off Africa.

New area to watch over in the northern Gulf for early next week

The area that we first mentioned in this newsletter on Monday and discussed in yesterday’s newsletter was added to the National Hurricane Center’s tropical weather outlook Wednesday morning.

July dry spell continues this week across the Atlantic

It’s been a very quiet first half of July across the Atlantic, as we previewed it would be back on July 1.

Why the (sub) tropics matter a little more this hurricane season

In most hurricane seasons, we watch for the storms that form in the Atlantic’s main development region, or MDR, the primary hurricane belt stretching from Africa through the Caribbean south of 20 degrees north latitude, where most of our strongest and longest-lived hurricanes form.

Quiet end to another quiet week in the Atlantic

It’s been a largely snoozy start to the Atlantic hurricane season, and that doesn’t look to change anytime soon.

Saharan dust unloads on the Atlantic

The biggest dust outbreak of the year is trying to make up for lost time, with the first round of dust reaching the sands of South Florida yesterday and even thicker dust reinforcements moving over Florida and into the Gulf by this weekend, settling over coastal Texas by the early to middle part of next week.

Forecasters lower predictions for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Hurricane experts at Colorado State University (CSU) – the team that pioneered seasonal hurricane outlooks back in the 1980s – issued their July update Wednesday morning, revising earlier predictions for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season downward for a second time since their initial forecast in April.

El Niño’s earlier-than-usual influence on the Atlantic hurricane season

It’s hard to ignore El Niño’s outsized influence on the Atlantic hurricane season, especially this year with what’s on pace to be the strongest El Niño on record. So if lately this newsletter is beginning to feel a little bit like an El Niño blog, it’s for good reason.

How strong El Niños shift the hills and valleys of hurricane season

A strong El Niño is a foregone conclusion this year, as even NOAA’s main climate change-adjusted index for tracking its progress – known as the Relative Oceanic Niño Index or RONI – is fast approaching the threshold necessary to classify this a strong El Niño.

Typhoon Bavi could become strongest storm of 2026 so far, takes aim at US Northern Mariana Islands

The Western Pacific typhoon season is off to a scorching start in 2026, with four typhoons and one super typhoon (with winds of at least 150 mph) recorded so far.

Why US landfalls are a rare occurrence on the 4th of July

Hurricane season doesn’t guarantee us any holidays, but the 4th of July is one of those rare exceptions when the coast is clear in most years.

Checking in on the health of the Atlantic

Typically by July we begin to get a better sense of the overall health of the Atlantic basin and how it’ll affect the peak months of the season in August, September, and October. This July the skies and seas of the Atlantic look beaten, bruised, and battered, which bodes well for curtailing overall hurricane activity in the months ahead.

Development odds dwindling for system off the southeast US

A weak area of low pressure along a stalled front over the western Atlantic, about 400 miles to the southeast of the Carolinas, remains disorganized, and little to no development is expected over the next few days as the system drifts westward toward the southeast U.S.

Keeping an eye off the Carolina coast this week

Over the weekend the National Hurricane Center added to its tropical outlook the system off the southeast U.S. we began discussing in this newsletter last Thursday.

June to end with the least active hurricane season start since 2019

Despite impactful flooding last week across the central Gulf Coast from the remnants of short-lived Tropical Storm Arthur — rainfall totals topping two feet in some places, bringing rainfall totals since May to nearly 50 inches across parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi — it’s been largely crickets across the Atlantic since the start of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.

Watching for home brews to start July

As June transitions to July next week, we’ll be keeping an eye off the shores of the southeast U.S. for an elongated area of low pressure tied to a stalled frontal zone that could spawn an area to watch by the middle to latter part of next week.

It’s Saharan dust season. Here’s how it’s shaping up

It’s the time of year giant plumes of dust heaved off the African continent from the Sahara Desert travel thousands of miles across the Atlantic, sprinkling down on the shoreline sands of Florida and the U.S. Gulf Coast.

AI weather models changing the hurricane forecast game

The 2025 hurricane season was a coming-of-age story for AI weather models, which have been around in some capacity since around 2022.

June out like a lamb in the Atlantic

June is historically the least active month of the hurricane season, but that doesn’t mean the first month of the season can’t bring its fair share of issues.

Arthur’s remnants leave a trail of devastating flooding across the Deep South

Tropical Storm Arthur lasted only 12 hours as a named storm on Wednesday – one of the shortest-lived named storms in Atlantic basin records – but its stormy, water-logged remnants dragged a slug of torrential rains and severe weather through parts of the Deep South on Thursday, leading to widespread, devastating flooding from south and central Louisiana to southeastern Mississippi and lower Alabama.

Flash flooding hits the New Orleans metro as Arthur moves inland

Short-lived Tropical Storm Arthur – which formed late Wednesday morning along the middle Texas coast – moved inland near Galveston by Wednesday afternoon and lost its tropical designation by Wednesday evening as its circulation quickly unraveled.

Tropical Storm Arthur forms along the Texas coast, fuels flood threat across the Deep South

The National Hurricane Center late Wednesday morning upgraded Potential Tropical Cyclone One to Tropical Storm Arthur, the first named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.

Odds increase for short-lived tropical storm this week

A large tropical disturbance spinning inland over the mountains of northern Mexico – in part the remnants of once-Tropical Storm Cristina that crossed Central America late last week and now dubbed Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center, the first Invest of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season – is expected to briefly re-emerge over the coastal waters off Texas late Tuesday and Wednesday where odds are increasing it could make a brief run as the season’s first tropical storm.

Gulf disturbance to heighten flood threat from Texas to Georgia this week

A tropical disturbance that moved into northern Mexico over the weekend – partly the leftover spin of once-Tropical-Storm Cristina that crossed Central America from the eastern Pacific – will hitch a ride along an unusually strong and slow-moving cold front this week through the Deep South.

Monitoring the northern Gulf into next week

The disturbance that we began previewing in this newsletter over a week ago and that was first mentioned by NHC on Wednesday is now centered over the Bay of Campeche in the extreme southern Gulf.

Updated 2026 hurricane outlook trends down as El Niño is officially declared

On Wednesday, the team of hurricane experts at Colorado State University (CSU) issued their June forecast update for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, reducing their predictions from their earlier April outlook, and now calls for the lowest tropical activity seen across the basin since 2015.

NHC tags first area to watch of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season

A disturbance we first detailed in this newsletter a week ago is now being tagged by the National Hurricane for low development odds later this week in the southern reaches of the Gulf before moving inland over eastern Mexico late Saturday into Sunday.

El Niño Watch: Where hurricanes form and which states are most at risk during El Niño

Though El Niño is responsible for intensifying many extreme weather patterns associated with climate change – worsening extreme drought, heavy rainfall, and heatwaves globally – its impact on the Atlantic hurricane season is generally welcome news to those of us living along hurricane alley.

What we’re watching for week 2 of the Atlantic hurricane season

In newsletters last week, we previewed the possibility of an active eastern Pacific seeding an uptick in storminess across the western Caribbean or southern Gulf later this week.

Quiet Atlantic to close out the first week of the hurricane season

The first full week of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will close without any named storms.

Keeping an eye to the Central American gyre for late next week

The opening volleys of the 2026 hurricane season have unsurprisingly come from the eastern Pacific so far, where Amanda – the basin’s first named storm – formed late yesterday morning, and two more systems are poised to develop into next week off the Pacific coast.

Eastern Pacific hurricane season ramps up as the Atlantic stays dormant

The Atlantic hurricane season usually doesn’t come roaring out of the gate, and, as we discussed in yesterday’s newsletter, June is historically the least active month of the season for the basin.

Where could we see tropical development for the first half of June?

June is historically the least active month of the 6-month hurricane season.

Hurricane season starts today. Here’s what to expect for week 1 and beyond

Today marks day one of the 183-day Atlantic hurricane season, which runs through Nov. 30. Forecasters expect overall hurricane activity across the Atlantic basin to be softened this season by a potentially historic El Niño building in the eastern equatorial Pacific, which acts to deter would-be storms on the Atlantic side by ramping up hostile wind shear.

This hurricane season two forecast models stand out, but for very different reasons

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season appears to be winding down.

Melissa strikes eastern Cuba as a major hurricane after ravaging western Jamaica

Hurricane Melissa, which devastated western Jamaica as one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded, briefly restrengthened between Jamaica and Cuba late Tuesday before making a second landfall shortly after 3 a.m. ET Wednesday as a Category 3 hurricane about 40 miles west of Santiago de Cuba – the country’s second most populous city – in eastern Cuba.

Melissa takes aims at Jamaica as a monster Category 5 hurricane

Hurricane Melissa put on a rare show overnight, tipping the scales as a Category 5 hurricane by the predawn hours Monday while drifting only about 100 miles south of Jamaica over the deep, warm waters of the central Caribbean.

Melissa to strengthen and drift near or south of Jamaica as a major hurricane by Sunday

Tropical Storm Melissa grounded to a halt over the central Caribbean about 150 miles south of Jamaica and Haiti early Friday.

Melissa forecast to rapidly strengthen into a major hurricane this weekend

Tropical Storm Melissa continued to struggle early Thursday as it crawled several hundred miles south of Jamaica and Haiti over the central Caribbean.

Melissa to meander, raising the risk of significant flash flooding for the north-central Caribbean

Tropical Storm Melissa formed late Tuesday morning about 300 miles south of Haiti over the central Caribbean but remains disorganized as it contends with persistent wind shear.

Development likely this week in the Caribbean, but future path remains unclear

A tropical wave that moved into the eastern Caribbean on Sunday – designated Invest 98L by the National Hurricane Center on Saturday – is becoming increasingly organized and will likely become a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next day or two as it slows over the central Caribbean.

Looking ahead to next week in the Caribbean

A strong late-season tropical wave now moving through the central Atlantic could develop once it enters the Caribbean as upper-level winds turn increasingly conducive next week.

Atlantic ends the week on a quiet note

Since the basin reopened for business about a month ago following a bizarre 20-day drought with no active tropical systems through the traditional peak of the hurricane season, it’s managed to notch 6 of its 12 named storms and a full 60% of the season’s overall tropical activity as measured by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy or ACE.

Lorenzo limps along as the Atlantic takes a breath

Despite earlier forecasts showing Tropical Storm Lorenzo hanging around into the weekend, the unfriendly central Atlantic of mid October has done a number on it, and it’s no longer expected to survive the work week.

Disheveled Jerry to pass near the northern Leeward Islands today

Despite a lopsided and disheveled appearance, Tropical Storm Jerry’s winds have gradually ticked up and it’s expected to be just shy of hurricane strength as its center curves north of the northern Leeward Islands along the northeastern edge of the Caribbean later today.

Tropical depression forming, could become a hurricane as it nears the Leeward Islands Thursday and Friday

A strong tropical disturbance churning through the central Atlantic – designated Invest 95L – continues to organize and is on the cusp of becoming a tropical depression or named storm. The next name on the list is Jerry.

No slowdown in hurricane season to start October

The 2025 hurricane season that hit the pause button for nearly 3 weeks around its traditional peak in September is showing no signs of slowing as we enter its final stretch.

Imelda strikes Bermuda, new area to watch for next week in the Atlantic

Hurricane Imelda struck Bermuda head on during the midnight hours late Wednesday and early Thursday, plunging about half the archipelago into darkness as daylight broke Thursday.

Imelda inbound for Bermuda

Hurricane Imelda is accelerating away from the U.S. but strengthening on a beeline to Bermuda for later today, where it’s forecast to bring strong winds to 100-plus mph, flooding rains, and powerful and destructive waves.

Hurricanes Imelda and Humberto lock arms and swing away from the US

Imelda became the 4th hurricane of the 2025 hurricane season early Monday as it began its anticipated turn eastward only about 250 miles off Florida’s east-central coast.

Imelda strengthens over the Bahamas as US threat lessens

Tropical Storm Imelda formed Sunday afternoon just east of the southern tip of Andros Island in the northwestern Bahamas and continues to strengthen near Great Abaco Island in the northern Bahamas – about 200 miles east of southeast Florida – on Monday.

Imelda could form by this weekend and threaten the southeast US early next week

Humberto rapidly strengthened to a hurricane early Friday and is forecast to ramp up into a formidable major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane this weekend, but it’s the disturbance to Humberto’s west that’s expected to develop and threaten the southeast U.S. – likely as Imelda – by late weekend and early next week.

Humberto forms, threat to the southeast US grows from possible Imelda

Humberto – the 8th named storm of the hurricane season – formed Monday afternoon over the central Atlantic and is forecast to become a major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane by Monday as it turns east of the U.S.

Double Trouble: Dueling disturbances head west for the weekend

Two vigorous tropical disturbances – designated Invest 93L (easternmost disturbance) and Invest 94L (westernmost disturbance) – are likely to develop in the coming days and could bring impacts to land, with the westernmost system tracking through the Bahamas and near Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas for early next week.

Gabrielle rapidly strengthens into a major hurricane, other systems eye the western Atlantic

As we previewed in this newsletter two weeks ago, the Atlantic is finally heating up as we round out September.

Gabrielle staging a comeback, forecast to become a hurricane this weekend

After days of struggles through the hostile deep Atlantic – barely holding on most of Thursday as a naked low-level cloud swirl – Gabrielle is staging a comeback today that should take it to hurricane strength before the weekend is out.

Gabrielle clinging to life but forecast to recover this weekend

Gabrielle, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, formed late Wednesday morning, the first named storm in the Atlantic since August 28th, breaking a remarkable 20-day stormless Atlantic streak and making it the latest first-forming September storm in over 30 years.

Depression forms, forecast to become Gabrielle later today

Invest 92L, the disturbance we’ve been following since early last week, was upgraded to the 7th tropical depression of the Atlantic hurricane season early Wednesday, breaking an unprecedented 20-day dry spell through what’s traditionally the busiest part of the season.

Atlantic wave train getting a late start

As we’ve been advertising since early last week, the Atlantic is poised to pick up the pace as we round out September.

Breaking the silence of an unprecedented Atlantic dry spell

It’s been 18 days since the Atlantic basin has seen any active system (tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane), an unprecedented dry spell through what is traditionally the most active stretch of the hurricane season.

Gradual development possible over the open Atlantic next week

The tropical wave we’ve been previewing all week has finally emerged off the coast of Africa and is expected to gradually develop deeper into next week as it passes harmlessly over the open Atlantic.

Another unusually quiet start to September across the Atlantic

Atlantic hurricane season activity traditionally peaks on or around September 10th, the date around which you’re most likely to find an active named storm.

Forecast Falter: Invest 91L fizzles despite bullish predictions

With virtually no model support for development by Saturday, the National Hurricane Center dropped development odds at a rapid clip, and before the day was out, Invest 91L was off their map.

Tracking Invest 91L toward the eastern Caribbean islands for next week

The tropical wave we’ve been following since last Thursday in this newsletter – designated Invest 91L by the National Hurricane Center early Thursday – is expected to become a tropical depression or named storm this weekend and could affect the easternmost islands of the Caribbean by the middle to latter part of next week.

Forecast models undecided on fate of Atlantic disturbance

The tropical wave that rolled off Africa Sunday – a system we’ve been following since last Thursday and discussed in detail in yesterday’s newsletter – continues to move harmlessly through the deep tropical Atlantic with only scattered, disorganized storminess.

Next tropical system could develop by this weekend

A disturbance over the eastern tropical Atlantic could gradually develop into a tropical depression or named storm by late this week or weekend as it moves generally west to west-northwestward.

Reflections on Katrina: 20 years later

Katrina was apocalyptic in every sense of the word.

Farewell to Fernand as the Atlantic takes a Labor Day holiday

After a rollicking August, the Atlantic basin looks poised to go its longest stretch without a named storm since the last days of July.

August closes quietly across the Atlantic

With one named storm taking its final bow today, the Atlantic should close out August on a quiet note.

New AI forecast model shines during Hurricane Erin

Google DeepMind, a London-based AI research lab, has been in the business of machine learning-based weather forecasting for several years, but back in June announced a new experimental AI model specific to tropical storms and hurricanes that would be evaluated in real-time this season by forecasters at the National Hurricane Center.

Fernand gone fishing as the Atlantic takes a breather

Fernand, the 6th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, formed on Saturday over the open Atlantic southeast of Bermuda, but hooked quickly east of Bermuda on Sunday on a path out to sea.

Enormous Erin growing larger; violent seas, dangerous waves & treacherous surf expected along US East Coast

Hurricane Erin’s reach through the western Atlantic continues to grow and intensify, with pressures quickly falling into the low 940s while churning about 475 miles east-southeast of northeast Florida.

Tropical storm and storm surge watches issued for North Carolina’s Outer Banks ahead of Erin

Hurricane Erin, already twice as large as it was just a few days ago, is expected to grow even larger this week as its expanding wind field brushes up against the U.S. Eastern Seaboard, delivering days of dangerous waves, high surf, and life-threatening rip currents for most of the coastal Atlantic states.

Erin stuns as a weekend Category 5, to bring life-threatening surf to the eastern US seaboard this week

Hurricane Erin dazzled forecasters over the weekend, putting on a spectacular show of strength rarely observed, becoming only the 43rd Atlantic-basin Category 5 hurricane on record and tying Camille in 1969 for the 4th earliest-forming Category 5 ever recorded.