Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W, south of 15N, moving westward around 10 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 44.5W, south of 15N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, south the SW tip of Haiti near 20N, moving westward at around 15 kt. A few showers are seen near the wave axis.

The active tropical wave continues to move across Central America and into the eastern Pacific. See the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Weather Discussion for more information.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 05N26W. The ITCZ extends from 05N26W to 06N33W, then resumes west of the tropical wave near 06N35W to 07N39W. No significant convection is observed in association with these features.

Gulf Of America

Other than some widely scattered showers in the eastern Gulf and near the coast of Veracruz, weather conditions are fairly quiet with the subtropical ridge dominating the basin. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds and seas of 3-5 ft are found in the western half of the Gulf and off northern Yucatan. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail in the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E to NE winds will pulse each afternoon and evening through the week north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough develops and treks westward across the region. Otherwise, ridging over the western Atlantic will maintain moderate S to SE winds and moderate seas over the central and western Gulf of America through the middle of the week, with gentle to locally moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas in the eastern basin.

Caribbean Sea

The eastern portion of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is producing a few showers across the SW Caribbean and generally drier conditions prevail elsewhere. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge located north of the islands and lower pressures in the deep tropics support fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Fresh to strong winds are noted in the Gulf of Honduras, with moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas elsewhere in the eastern and western Caribbean, especially south of 20N. The remainder of the basin is dominated by moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds are expected to pulse across the central and west-central Caribbean through the middle of the week as a strong pressure gradient prevails between high pressure to the north and low pressure in the south-central Caribbean. Rough seas in E swell are likely in this region. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will also occur each night and morning in the Gulf of Honduras, and these winds will expand through much of the northwestern Caribbean early in the week after the passage of a tropical wave. Elsewhere, locally rough seas in E swell will occur east of the Lesser Antilles and through the passages into the eastern Caribbean into today. Otherwise, mainly moderate winds and seas are expected across the rest of the basin.

Atlantic Ocean

The broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic dominates the tropical Atlantic waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics supports moderate to locally fresh easterly winds south of 22N and west of 40W, including through the Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. In the eastern Atlantic, moderate to locally strong N-NE winds and seas of 6-9 ft are noted north of 16N and east of 21W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh trade winds will pulse south of 25N through the middle of the week as high pressure prevails over the central Atlantic. At the same time, locally strong winds will be possible just north of Hispaniola. Elsewhere, moderate S to SW winds will pulse offshore of Florida into the middle of the week as low pressure prevails over the eastern United States. Otherwise, mainly gentle to locally moderate winds and moderate seas are expected elsewhere north of 25N through the week.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Lewitsky