Hurricane experts at Colorado State University (CSU) – the team that pioneered seasonal hurricane outlooks back in the 1980s – issued their July update Wednesday morning, revising earlier predictions for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season downward for a second time since their initial forecast in April.
The forecast team, led by Dr. Phil Klotzbach, now predicts 2026 could rival some of the least active seasons this century, and its bottom-line forecast for Accumulated Cyclone Energy or ACE – the seasonal scorecard that considers the overall strength and duration of storms – would be the third lowest in 30 years if it materializes, behind only the well-below-average 2013 and 1997 hurricane seasons.
The team calls for 4 hurricanes, but only one major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane this season. Over the past three decades, only the 1997 and 2013 seasons ended with fewer than two major hurricanes. 2013 is the only hurricane season since 1994 to record no Category 3 or stronger hurricanes.
No Atlantic hurricane season in the reliable records (since 1950) has gone hurricane-less and generally two hurricanes is the floor, even for the least active seasons. The most active seasons like 2005 and 2020 have recorded as many as 15 hurricanes in a single season (15 and 14 hurricanes respectively in 2005 and 2020).
The lower overall numbers suggest lower chances of a U.S. hurricane hit this season, but the below-average forecast certainly doesn’t let the U.S. off the hook. Even in very inactive hurricane seasons, big hurricanes can strike (see Hurricane Andrew in 1992 for a South-Florida-specific example). That said, overall odds of at least one major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane making landfall in the continental U.S. are cut by more than half this year – from 43% in a typical season to 17% in 2026.
Playing by El Niño’s rules
If you’ve read any of our newsletters in recent weeks, the lower predictions shouldn’t come as a surprise. The driving factor behind the downward predictions is increasing confidence that we’ll have a strong to very strong El Niño in place for the peak months of the season, which will keep storm-busting wind shear high, especially in the western part of the tropical Atlantic where hurricanes often hit their stride.
Long-range seasonal forecast models can struggle with El Niño predictions during the spring months but that wasn’t the case in 2026. If anything, forecast models seem to have underdone forecasts out of the gate, and El Niño conditions are already transitioning from moderate to strong levels, with additional strengthening expected into the fall and winter, when El Niño traditionally peaks.
Nada for the near future
Mum’s the word across the tropical Atlantic for the foreseeable future. We’re seeing one of the biggest dust outbreaks of the season so far, and as we discussed in Tuesday’s newsletter, wind shear will stay prohibitively high for the next few weeks.
The only dark horse development contender isn’t until the end of next week with a frontal low off the Carolinas. Models keep those odds very low (less than 10%), and it’s not anything we need to be concerned with for now.
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