A large tropical disturbance spinning inland over the mountains of northern Mexico – in part the remnants of once-Tropical Storm Cristina that crossed Central America late last week and now dubbed Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center, the first Invest of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season – is expected to briefly re-emerge over the coastal waters off Texas late Tuesday and Wednesday where odds are increasing it could make a brief run as the season’s first tropical storm.
The first name on the list is Arthur.
Narrow development window beginning late Tuesday
Forecast models continue to advertise only a narrow development window starting late Tuesday and on Wednesday as the system skirts the Texas coastline.
Interestingly, while Google’s DeepMind machine learning-based model – the star performer last hurricane season – was one of the early models to detect the possibility of development, it’s since backed off almost entirely in recent runs, perhaps due to a trend toward an overland track rather than over water, as recent models suggest.
Though its positioning near or over the northwestern Gulf is important to development – as warm Gulf waters supply its heat engine – the system’s positioning to nearby jet stream winds will also provide a boost from non-tropical processes.
With moderate to high wind shear in the vicinity, forecast intensity models largely keep any development minimal (borderline tropical storm strength), and anything that forms will likely be lopsided and stretched in appearance, with the heaviest rains and gusty winds east of the circulation.
Heavy rains and blustery conditions regardless
By early Thursday, the low-pressure system will be moving inland over parts of western Louisiana and merging with a cold front diving into the southeast by Friday while accelerating through Alabama and into north-central Georgia. Although forecast models indicate some strengthening of the low-pressure system inland later this week, it will be from non-tropical processes, but could raise the risk for strong, gusty winds and severe weather across parts of north-central Alabama and Georgia by the end of the work week.
As we detailed in Monday’s newsletter, however, the primary impact across the Texas Gulf Coast and Lower Mississippi River Valley this week will be the threat of widespread, heavy rainfall and flooding. The National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center is forecasting a moderate risk (threat level 3 of 4) of excessive rainfall through early Friday for portions of southeastern Texas (today through early Thursday), Louisiana, and central Mississippi and Alabama.
Radar indicates up to 5 to 8 inches of rain has already fallen in parts of east-central Texas and central Louisiana since Sunday.
Another 10 inches or more of rainfall could fall locally across areas of the Deep South this week, leading to numerous and significant flash flood events.
Stay apprised of local weather conditions through your local National Weather Service office, local media, or preferred weather app if you are in any areas under risk for flooding this week.
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