Short-lived Tropical Storm Arthur – which formed late Wednesday morning along the middle Texas coast – moved inland near Galveston by Wednesday afternoon and lost its tropical designation by Wednesday evening as its circulation quickly unraveled.
Nevertheless, intense tropical rainfall well east of Arthur’s remnant circulation spread over parts of southeastern Louisiana overnight into the pre-dawn hours Thursday, causing significant, widespread flash flooding across parts of the New Orleans metro and River Parishes of southeastern Louisiana by daybreak.
Radar indicates rainfall rates exceeding 3 inches an hour in the New Orleans metro at points early Thursday, with official 6-hourly rainfall totals at New Orleans International Airport nearing 8 inches by 7 AM local time.
According to radar and storm reports, Lafourche, Jefferson, and Orleans Parishes south of Lake Pontchartrain in southeast Louisiana have seen the worst flooding so far, especially around places like Houma, Thibodaux, St. Rose, Kenner, Metairie, and parts of New Orleans. Flooding was also reported north of Lake Pontchartrain around Slidell.
Additionally, another pocket of extreme rainfall was observed southeast of Alexandria in south-central Louisiana. A reporting station in Plaucheville, Louisiana, had reported an incredible 10 inches of rain in a 3-hour period from around 5 AM to 8 AM local time Thursday.
More flooding ahead today for the central Gulf Coast
As Arthur’s remnants spread farther inland today, the flood threat will extend along the central Gulf Coast into central Georgia.
The National Weather Service issued a rare high risk of excessive flooding (flood threat level 4 out of 4) for parts of southern Mississippi, South Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle. A high risk of excessive rainfall indicates the possibility of extreme impacts from flash flooding. While only issued on about 4 percent of days, so-called “high-risk days” account for about a third of all flood deaths and a remarkable 80 percent of flood-related damages.
Places in the high-risk flood zone today include McComb, Gulfport, Biloxi, and Pascagoula, Mississippi, as well as Mobile, Alabama, and Pensacola, Florida.
Those living in these areas especially will want to monitor flash flood warnings issued by local National Weather Service offices today through local media outlets or your preferred weather app.
The flood threat will persist across parts of the southeast in the wake of Arthur’s remnants through early Saturday, as abundant tropical air ahead of an approaching cold front will mean the possibility of continued heavy rainfall, especially from eastern Mississippi to southern Alabama.
Additionally, isolated severe storms and a few tornadoes may accompany the weather along the Gulf Coast today.
Slight chance Arthur re-develops off the U.S. East Coast this weekend
As we mentioned in yesterday’s newsletter, as Arthur’s remnants emerge off the Carolinas Friday into Saturday, it could try to briefly re-develop as it accelerates eastward over the western Atlantic.
As of Thursday morning, NHC puts those odds at only 10 percent. If development happens, it’ll likely be associated with non-tropical processes, as the system will be mixed up with an approaching cold front. Regardless, the low pressure will be swept quickly out to sea, so a second act of Arthur poses no direct threat to land.
The Atlantic will settle down otherwise, with no development expected elsewhere through the latter part of next week.
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